2020 | Home assignment | retake examBA-BPOLO2010U: Quantitative Methods for Business and Social ScienceGeneral instructionsContent and format:•The assignment is individual and should be maximum 10 CBS standard pages. Please follow CBSguidelines regarding all content.–This is an upper limit, fewer pages are fine.–The R-code that you provide in the Appendix does not counttowards your page limit.•Please do not include the text of the questions in your answer submission, but do include the exact question number. Submit the final document with the subquestions following the order from the exam sheet.•Please respond to all questions to the best of your knowledge and do it in your own words.•Do not plagiarize and keep in mind that this is an individual assignment!•In case you are using a particular idea/comment from somewhere, please add a reference. Use anystyle, but be consistent (Chicago, APA, etc.). You do not need to cite calculation methods from thebook or lecture slides, such as the standard error calculation, or the formula for the mean.•Ifyouareaskedtocalculatesomething, describehowyoucalculateditandputtheresultsincontext.Elaborate on your answers in order to show that you are able to explain statistical results and ableto make substantive interpretations.•Remember to report relevant output in the exam document. You can just copy-paste it directly fromRor add the figures, you do not need to spend much time on formatting tables for this exam as longas the results you present are readable and understandable.•Everything must be handed in as one.pdffile (including appendix of R code appendix).Notes on data and R code as appendix:•All data needed is available on the courseCanvaspage.•For answers that involve data analysis, you need to supply working R code that produces the results.•You should copy-paste the R script (in the “source pane”) as text in the Appendix. For the R codeplease avoid screenshots.•Do not include substantive interpretation as comment in the script/appendix.•You can briefly annotate your script (i.e., ## recoded variable to range from x to x, or ## producingfigure 2) and/or mark to which subquestion the code refers, although it is not mandatory.Final remarks:•While this is a take-home assignment and exam, hopefully you will find the topics engaging. Examscan be overwhelming,but results emerge eventually.
1Question 1: Sustainable food choicesYou will be discussing the analysis and results presented inHansen, P. G., Schilling, M., & Malthesen, M.S. (2019). Nudging healthy and sustainable food choices: three randomized controlled field experimentsusing a vegetarian lunch-default as a normative signal. Journal of Public Health.1The first step will be tocarefully read the paper. All main analysis in this paper uses methodology that has been covered in yourcoursework.Question 1.1:Summarize the article’s main finding and highlight the contribution you deem most impor-tant and most surprising.Question 1.2:Compare any two experiments of the paper in your own words: who are the treated units,what is the response variable and what is the treatment? Discuss the role of randomization and thedifferences in the treatment choices. Why did the authors rely on multiple experiments?Question 1.3:Discussconsiderationsofinternalandexternalvaliditythroughoutthewholestudy(allthreeexperiments), highlighting potential trade-offs in general and how they relate to the studies carried out.Question 1.4:The paper presents group differences in a plot and discusses these in text. Pick one compar-ison and carry out step-by-step the hypothesis testing (with the𝛼value of your choice) for a differencein proportion.Question 1.5:The paper discusses some differences between men and women. Present a brief outline ofa study that you would design to get a more detailed view of these differences and the potential reasonsbehind them.Question 2: Personality traits and political attitudesYouwillbeworkingwithpartsofthedatafromVitriol, J.A., E.G.Larsen&S.G.Ludeke. 2020. JustasWEIRD?Personality Traits and Political Attitudes Among Immigrant Minorities. Journal of Research in Personality85:2Reading the paper can help you with giving better answers, however, the questions and tasks can becarried out without that.You will have at your disposal a subset of some questions used in the paper (Immigrant panel (LISS-Ipanel) in the Netherlands) in thetraits.Rdatafile (ortraits.csvfile). Not all respondents or itemsare included in the data, thus your results will not be comparable to the ones in the paper. This is not areproduction exercise. The dataset is described below (see next page).Before starting your work, you will have to take two decisions:1.from the five Personality Trait variables (see table and/or paper), select one as your trait of coreinterest. We will refer to this as “main predictor” in the tasks.2.fromIdeology,PoliticalTrust,andSatisfactionwithDemocracyselectoneasyourresponse/dependentvariable for the regression tasks. We will refer to this as “response/dependent” variable in thetasks.You do not have to give a reason why you chose what you chose, simply state your choice. You shouldanswer the following data analysis and interpretation related questions/tasks below. Please rememberthe coding of the response/dependent variables.1The article is also made available on Canvas.2The article is also made available on Canvas. When you load the data, you should have 815 rows and 12 columns.2
Variable nameDescriptiondutchDutch (1) or other (0)fgFirst generation immigrant (1), (0) for other,can be Dutch or multiple generationsnwNon-Western immigrant background (1), (0) for other,can be Dutch or Western backgroundopennessPersonality trait: Openness to Experience, [0, 1] continuous, from low to highconscientiousnessPersonality trait: Conscientiousness, [0, 1] continuous, from low to highextraversionPersonality trait: Extraversion, [0, 1] continuous, from low to highagreeablenessPersonality trait: Agreeableness, [0, 1] continuous, from low to highneuroticismPersonality trait: Neuroticism, [0, 1] continuous, from low to highideologyRespondent’s ideology, [0-10] continuous, from left to rightpolparVoted in elections (1), (0) otherwisepoltrPolitical trust, [0-10] continuous, from low to highstfdemSatisfaction with democracy, [0-10] continuous, from low to highQuestion 2.1:Is the proportion of non-voters among first generation immigrants statistically significantlydifferent from 0.25? Carry out a hypothesis test step-by-step with your own calculations (you can use R forthese) and also present the formulas you used. Use an𝛼level of 0.05. Do your conclusions change if youuse an𝛼level of 0.1? Compare your results with the output from anRfunction that you find appropriateto answer this question. Please use two-tailed tests.Question 2.2:Is the average level of agreeableness statistically significantly different between Dutch andnon-Dutch respondents? Present the hypothesis test either by carrying it out step-by-step or by relyingon a built in function for mean differences. Use an𝛼level of 0.05. Do your conclusions change if you usean𝛼level of 0.1? Please use two-tailed tests.Question 2.3:Summarize your main predictor (chosen above) variable using the appropriate measuresof central tendency and spread. Create a univariate summary plot and interpret what it displays. Cre-ate a plot that summarizes the bivariate relationship between the response/dependent variable and thechosen main predictor. Summarize the relationship through a correlation coefficient.Question 2.4:For your response/dependent variable, calculate the standard error of the mean, constructa 95% confidence interval for the mean and interpret these two uncertainty measures (standard error andconfidence interval). Do this relying on your own calculations (you can use R for these) and also presentthe formulas you used.Question 2.5:Run a linear regression where your chosen response/dependent variable is a function ofall five personality traits and the dutch, fg, and nw variables. Interpret the model results in substantiveterms and discuss measures of uncertainty and hypothesis test for the coefficients of interest.Question 2.6:Extend the previous model in a way that can answer if there are heterogeneous effects onyour response/dependent variable regarding your chosen main predictor and non-Western background.Report the model results in a table format and interpret the terms of interest and what this means foryour substantive conclusions. It is recommended, but not mandatory to offer a visual display of therelationship.For most of this question you have to carry out the analysis inR. This code has to be included as Ap-pendix and should produce the results featuring in your report. If something is reported in the text (alsofigures/tables used), it has to be included in the code.3
Question 3: Polls and election results in 2015 and 2019We have looked at how well polls or betting markets predict electoral outcomes in the US. In thepoll-dk-comp.Rdata(orpoll-dk-comp.csv) file you have Danish political party support polling numbers.This dataset covers two parties, three polling companies, and two pre-election periods (2015 and 2019).The dataset is described below.3Variable name DescriptionidID for each pollpollingfirmPolling firm conducting the pollpoll_dateDate of data collection (character)nSample sizeparty_oSupport forDansk Folkeparti(in %)party_vSupport forVenstre(in %)party_o_res_15Election result forDansk Folkeparti(in %), 2015party_v_res_15Election result forVenstre(in %), 2015party_o_res_19Election result forDansk Folkeparti(in %), 2019party_v_res_19Election result forVenstre(in %), 2019Using the concepts and metrics discussed in the course, analyzing solely the data at hand and relyingon your own analysis, answer the following questions. Please always describe how did you reach yourconclusion and what data/metric supports the conclusion. Depending on the measures you consider orangle you take in your analysis, there might be different answers to these questions. This is normal, butthis is also why it is essential to describe why you chose those measures, how you made the comparisonsand how they substantiate your conclusion.Question 3.1:In which pre-election did YouGov perform better, 2015 or 2019? How about Voxmeter?Question 3.2:Relying on polls from both companies carried out in the last week before the elections (both2015 and 2019), which party’s electoral result was better predicted?Question 3.3:Relying on all polls, how did the quality of prediction change as we got closer to the 2015election date? Please use at least one visualization to substantiate your conclusions. How was this dif-ferent in 2019? Discuss the potential differences or similarities.Question 3.4Does the poll’s sample size matter for the quality of predictions, and if so, are there between-party differences in how important these are? Discuss the potential role of the timing of polls as well,relating your answer to point 3.3.For most of this question you have to carry out the analysis inR. This code has to be included as Ap-pendix and should produce the results featuring in your report. If something is reported in the text (alsofigures/tables used), it has to be included in the code.3When you load the data, you should have 56 rows and 10 columns.4
