- Find and post below the following three charts:
- The most recent (any day the week of 4/5/2021) and the 1-Year Ago Treasury Yield Curve;
- The 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate (from April 1, 2020 to the most recent date); and
- The 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-month Treasury Constant Maturity (from April 1, 2020 to the most recent date).
- Discuss:
- By how much has inflation expectation changed from one year ago? Is this reflected in the Yield Curve?
- Does the recent increase in Long-term rates indicate optimism about future growth, or concern about inflation? Explain.
- What might the 10-Year to 3-month Treasury Spreads portend for bank profitability in 2021 vs. 2020? Explain.
- Given the Fed’s avowal to continue with QE for now, discuss possible reasons for the rise of long-term rates in 2021.
- A bank buys a large block of $1,000 par value, 30-year, 8% coupon bonds for $980 per bond. The bank plans to hold it for three years and estimates that markets required rate of return for the bond in three years should be 5%. (Show all your calculations.)
- What is the bond’s current YTM?
- What is the expected selling price for the bonds in three years?
- What holding period yield (HPY) will the bank earn if it buys the bonds today and can sell them at the expected price (based on the predicted YTM of 5%)?
- Banks have at their disposal different asset-liability management strategies to deal with interest rate risk. Discuss the following items:
- Describe the two types of risks that changes in interest rates can lead to for a bank. Use examples to illustrate.
- Explain the concept of IS Gap management. Which kind of risk does it address? How do banks typically implement this strategy?
- Explain the concept of Duration Gap management. Which kind of risk does it address? How do banks typically implement this strategy?
- Discuss how Securitization and Credit Swaps can be used to manage interest rate risks.
- Rockefeller Bank, NA, has $200 million of bonds with a duration of 6 years, commercial loans of $600 million with a duration of 4 years, and $400 million of consumer loans with a duration of 5 years. It has funded itself with $600 million of deposits with an average duration of 2 years, and $400 million of volatile liabilities with a duration of 0.75 years. (Show all your calculations.)
- Compute Rockefeller’s Duration Gap.
- Suppose interest rates go up 50 basis points from current rates of 4.0%. What is the likely impact on the bank’s Net Worth?