Understanding Of Risk
What Is Risk?
How do individuals understand risk?
This largely depends on the question that is asked. If we ask: ‘what are the risks of smoking?’ we are equating risk with potential negative consequences, such as developing cancer or heart disease. However, if we ask: ‘what is the risk that a non-smoker will develop heart disease?’ we are equating risk with the probability or likelihood of an outcome. Probability is difficult enough to understand, as a student of statistics: how many of you are really confident you understand the probability calculations that lie behind the 0.05 alpha level? However, when we ask ‘how risky is smoking?’ we are asking about both the negative consequences and the probability of those consequences occurring. Someone may understand the consequences of an action in relation to their health. They may not, however, understand the probability of those consequences occurring in general or on their own individual risk levels. As such, risk perceptions consist of beliefs about the potential consequences of behaviour, beliefs about the probability of occurrence and beliefs about personal risk in the knowledge of any factors that might modify that risk. These beliefs, as with any other set of beliefs, can be influenced by a multitude of factors – consider the influences on health beliefs we covered during Unit 1.
