How do you reconcile the probability and the actual occurrence (or non-occurrence) of the event? Has your study of probability changed your beliefs regarding the validity of sources that put forth “probable outcomes”?

Probability

THE GOAL: The goal of this discussion is to get you to seriously consider your beliefs about probability.

YOUR ASSIGNMENT:

Research a probability that is of interest. This could be anything from the probability of a major earthquake in California to the lottery.
Examine the probability and evaluate the source of the information, how the probability was calculated, etc.
Share your thoughts on the probability you selected and probability in general.

INITIAL POST:

(1) The probability that you selected, why you selected it, how the probability was derived as well as the source of your information.

(2) How do you reconcile the probability and the actual occurrence (or non-occurrence) of the event?

(3) Has your study of probability changed your beliefs regarding the validity of sources that put forth “probable outcomes”?