Health Economics or Developmental economics
Abstract
In this research, we study the effect of different kinds of lockdown policies on the spread of Covid-19 in eleven ASEAN countries. This research result shows that there is evidence that the lockdown policies are effective in preventing the spread of Covid-19 virus. Most of the lockdown polices can help reduce the growth of cumulative confirmed cases. The results show that closing school is the most effective policy. Closing workplace and closing public transport are the second and third most effective policies. International controls with quarantining and banning some arrivals are the fourth most effective policies. Stay at home ordering and cancelling public events are the least lockdown policies in preventing the spread of Covid-19 pandemic. We also investigate the relationship between different lockdown policies on reducing the spread of virus. Our result shows that restriction on gatherings is necessary even if one of the following lockdown policies is issued: closing workplace, cancelling public events, stay at home requirement. The combination between restriction on gatherings and those policies can help reduce the growth of cumulative confirmed cases more. Moreover, the combination between internal movement restriction and international travel control with quarantining also create better impact on reducing the spread of Covid-19.
1 Introduction
Covid-19 began in China and then spread into other countries. It caused a pandemic that made a lot of damage to the health of people and the economy of countries all over the world. Governments have applied different policies to control the spread of this Covid-19 pandemic. Among those approaches were the lockdown policies. With lockdown policies, governments would like to decrease the social contacts between citizens to reduce the spread of virus. Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) include 11 countries in Southeast Asia: Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Timor-Leste and Vietnam. This region is next to China and is the home of 647 million people. Because this region is next to China, it was affected by the Covid-19 very soon. In ASEAN countries, the governments applied lockdown policies very soon with the intension to prevent the spread of this virus in their countries. With lockdown policies, a lot of people could not come to schools and workplace, and a lot of businesses went bankrupt. Therefore, it is necessary to do research to understand which lockdown policies are effective to prevent the spread of Covid-19.
2 Research questions
We would like to do this research to answer two following questions: Do lockdown policies have any effect on reducing the spread of Covid-19 in ASEAN countries? Which lockdown policies are more effective on reducing the spread of Covid-19 in ASEAN countries?
3 Institutional background
There are some previous studies about the effects of lockdown policies on Covid-19 pandemic. Flaxman et al., (2020) shows that lockdown policies have the effect on the increase of new infection and deaths across countries in the pandemic. Hatchett et al. (2007) shows that the policies issues by local governments across U.S. cities have effects on controlling the spread of Spanish 3 Influenza. Hartl et al. (2020) investigates the effects of shutdown policies on the spread of Covid-19 in Germany. They shows that the shutdown policies helped reduce the growth rate of Covid-19 in Germany by 48.2%. Harris and Jones (2020) investigate the effect of school closing on controlling the spread of Covid-19. Chinazzi et al. (2020) studies about the effect of travel restriction policy in the mainland of China.
This study shows that sustained 90% travel restrictions to and from mainland China only has modestly effect on the spread of Covid-19, unless it is combined with a 50% or higher reduction of transmission in the society. Kraemer et al. (2020) studies about the effect of human mobility and control measures on the spread of Covid-19 in China. This study shows that the control measures that China implemented really helped control the growth of pandemic. Maier & Brockmann (2020) shows that the control measures that government made before the lockdown have effect on controlling the spread of Covid-19 in China. Giordano et al. (2020) shows that the restrictive social distancing policy needs to be combined with the widespread testing and contact tracing in order to control the spread of Covid-19 virus.
There are some previous studies about the Covid-19 pandemic in ASEAN countries. Chong et al. (2020) studies about the economic impacts of Covid-19 pandemic on different ASEAN countries. They find out that slowing growth, the sluggish recovery of trade and the cross-country transmission of unemployment are the three problems that ASEAN countries have to face because of this pandemic. Djalante et al. (2020) examines the response of ASEAN countries on the pandemic. They examines media s tatements and policies from ASEAN member states and the ASEAN Secretariat to get information about the responses of those countries on Covid-19. In this study, they identify the gaps and opportunities of different government policy response to fight against the pandemic. Fauzi & Paiman (2020) reviews the policies issued by governments of ASEAN countries to identify their advantages and disadvantages. ASEAN includes 11 countries: Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Timor-Leste and Vietnam. This region is next to China and is one of the first places that was affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. Governments in those countries issued lockdown policies very soon to fight against. However, up to now there is no study about the effect of different lockdown policies on the spread of Covid-19 in ASEAN countries. Therefore, we would like to do this research to investigate about the effect of different lockdown policies on the spread of Covid-19 and to see which kinds of lockdown policies are more effective.
