Use the sales forecaster’s prediction to describe a normal probability distribution that can be used to approximate the demand distribution. Sketch the distribution and show its mean and standard deviation.

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Specialty Toys Managerial Report

Specialty Toys, Inc. sells a variety of new and innovative children’s toys. Management learned that the preholiday season is the best time to introduce a new toy, because many families use this time to look for new ideas for December holiday gifts. When Specialty discovers a new toy with good market potential, it chooses an October market entry date.
In order to get toys into its stores by October, Specialty places one-time orders with its manufacturers in June or July of each year. Demand for children’s toys can be highly volatile. If a new toy catches on, a sense of shortage in the marketplace often increases the demand to high levels and large profits can be realized. However, new toys can also flop, leaving Specialty stuck with high levels of inventory that must be sold at reduced prices. The most important question the company faces is deciding how many units of a new toy should be purchased to meet anticipated sales demand. If too few are purchased, sales will be lost; if too many are purchased, profits will be reduced because of low prices realized in clearance sales.
For the coming season, Specialty plans to introduce a new product called Weather Teddy. This variation of a talking teddy bear is made by a company in Taiwan. When a child presses Teddy’s hand, the bear begins to talk. A built-in barometer selects one of five responses that predict the weather conditions. The responses range from “It looks to be a very nice day! Have fun” to “I think it may rain today. Don’t forget your umbrella.” Tests with the product show that, even though it is not a perfect weather predictor, its predictions are surprisingly good. Several of Specialty’s managers claimed Teddy gave predictions of the weather that were as good as those of many local television weather forecasters.
As with other products, Specialty faces the decision of how many Weather Teddy units to order for the coming holiday season. Members of the management team suggested order quantities of 15,000, 18,000, 24,000, or 28,000 units. The wide range of order quantities suggested indicates considerable disagreement concerning the market potential. The product management team asks you for an analysis of the stock-out probabilities for various order quantities, an estimate of the profit potential, and help with making an order quantity recommendation. Specialty expects to sell Weather Teddy for $24 based on a cost of $16 per unit. If inventory remains after the holiday season, Specialty will sell all surplus inventory for $5 per unit. After reviewing the sales history of similar products, Specialty’s senior sales forecaster predicted an expected demand of 20,000 units with a .95 probability that demand would be between 10,000 units and 30,000 units.

Managerial Report
Prepare a managerial report that addresses the following issues and recommends an order quantity for the Weather Teddy product.

Use the sales forecaster’s prediction to describe a normal probability distribution that can be used to approximate the demand distribution. Sketch the distribution and show its mean and standard deviation.

Compute the probability of a stock-out for the order quantities suggested by members of the management team.

Compute the projected profit for the order quantities suggested by the management team under three scenarios: worst case in which sales = 10,000 units, most likely case in which sales = 20,000 units, and best case in which sales = 30,000 units.

One of Specialty’s managers felt that the profit potential was so great that the order quantity should have a 70% chance of meeting demand and only a 30% chance of any stock-outs. What quantity would be ordered under this policy, and what is the projected profit under the three sales scenarios?

Provide your own recommendation for an order quantity and note the associated profit projections. Provide a rationale for your recommendation.

Describe a topic, idea, or concept you find so engaging that it makes you lose all track of time. Why does it captivate you? What or who do you turn to when you want to learn more?

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Personal statement

One essay/personal statement, approximately 250-650 words in length, which will assist the Admission Committee in reviewing your application. The essay/personal statement you submit must consist solely of your own origin work. You may write on a subject of your choice or one of the following subjects:

Some students have a background, identity, interest, or talent that is so meaningful they believe their application would be incomplete without it. If this sounds like you, then please share your story.
The lessons we take from failure can be fundamental to later success. Recount an incident or time when you experienced failure. How did it affect you, and what did you learn from the experience?
Reflect on a time when you challenged a belief or idea. What prompted you to act? Would you make the same decision again?
Describe a problem you have solved or a problem you’d like to solve. It can be an intellectual challenge, a research query, an ethical dilemma-anything that is of personal importance, no matter the scale. Explain its significance to you and what steps you took or could be taken to identify a solution.
Discuss an accomplishment or event, formal or informal, that marked your transition from childhood to adulthood within your culture, community, or family.
Describe a topic, idea, or concept you find so engaging that it makes you lose all track of time. Why does it captivate you? What or who do you turn to when you want to learn more?
Share an essay on any topic of your choice. It can be one you’ve already written, or one that responds to a different prompt, or one of your own design.

Pforzheimer Honors College:

All students are considered for the Pforzheimer Honors College based on their GPA and Test scores. Students may apply as test optional to be considered for admission within the Pforzheimer Honors College. You will need a need a minimum 90 GPA and will need to submit two short essays that are listed on the application.

Is the median occupancy rate approximately the same throughout the week? If not, which days have lower median occupancy rates? Which days have higher median occupancy rates? Is this what you expected?

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 Signature Assignment: Smart Parking Space App Presentation

Purpose 

This assignment illustrates how data analytics can be used to create strategies for sustainable organizational success while integrating the organization’s mission with societal values. You’ll apply statistical time series modeling techniques to identify patterns and develop time-dependent demand models. You’ll practice organizing and delivering a presentation to senior decision-makers. The PowerPoint presentation includes an audio component in addition to speaker notes.

Resource: Microsoft Excel®, DAT565_v3_Wk6_Data_File – Attach Below

Scenario: A city’s administration isn’t driven by the goal of maximizing revenues or profits but instead looks at improving the quality of life of its residents. Many American cities are confronted with high traffic and congestion. Finding parking spaces, whether in the street or a parking lot, can be time-consuming and contribute to congestion. Some cities have rolled out data-driven parking space management to reduce congestion and make traffic more fluid.

You’re a data analyst working for a mid-size city that has anticipated significant increments in population and car traffic. The city is evaluating whether it makes sense to invest in infrastructure to count and report the number of parking spaces available at the different parking lots downtown. This data would be collected and processed in real-time, feeding an app that motorists can access to find parking space availability in different parking lots throughout the city.

Instructions: Work with the provided Excel database. This database has the following columns:

Lot Code: A unique code that identifies the parking lot

Lot Capacity: A number with the respective parking lot capacity

Lot Occupancy: A number with the current number of cars in the parking lot

Time Stamp: A day/time combination indicating the moment when occupancy was measured

Day: The day of the week corresponding to the Time Stamp

Insert a new column, Occupancy Rate, recording occupancy rate as a percentage with one decimal. For instance, if the current Lot Occupancy is 61 and Lot Capacity is 577, then the Occupancy Rate would be reported as 10.6 (or 10.6%).

Using the Occupancy Rate and Day columns, construct box plots for each day of the week. You can use Insert > Insert Statistic Chart >Box and Whisker for this purpose. Is the median occupancy rate approximately the same throughout the week? If not, which days have lower median occupancy rates? Which days have higher median occupancy rates? Is this what you expected?

Using the Occupancy Rate and Lot Code columns, construct box plots for each parking lot. You can use Insert > Insert Statistic Chart >Box and Whisker for this purpose. Do all parking lots experience approximately equal occupancy rates? Are some parking lots more frequented than others? Is this what you expected?

Select any 2 parking lots. For each one, prepare a scatter plot showing the occupancy rate against Time Stamp for the week 11/20/2016 –11/26/2016. Are occupancy rates time-dependent? If so, which times seem to experience the highest occupancy rates? Is this what you expected?

Presentation:

Your audience is the City Council members who are responsible for deciding whether the city invests in resources to set in motion the smart parking space app.

Complete the following in your presentation:

Outline the rationale and goals of the project.

Utilize box plots showing the occupancy rates for each day of the week. Include your interpretation of the results.

Utilize box plots showing the occupancy rates for each parking lot. Include your interpretation of the results.

Provide scatter plots showing occupancy rate against the time of day of your selected four parking lots. Include your interpretation of the results.

Make a recommendation about continuing with the implementation of this project.

When we do use an additive model? When do we use a multiplicative model?

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Discussion Board Week 6 – Time Series Modeling

Time series are particularly useful to track variables such as revenues, costs, and profits over time. Time series models help evaluate performance and make predictions. Consider the following and respond in a minimum of 175 words use one resource:

Time series decomposition seeks to separate the time series (Y) into 4 components: trend (T), cycle (C), seasonal (S), and irregular (I). What is the difference between these components?

The model can be additive or multiplicative. When we do use an additive model? When do we use a multiplicative model?

The following list gives the gross federal debt (in millions of dollars) for the U.S. every 5 years from 1945 to 2000:

Year Gross Federal Debt ($millions)

1945 260,123

1950 256,853

1955 274,366

1960 290,525

1965 322,318

1970 380,921

1975 541,925

1980 909,050

1985 1,817,521

1990 3,206,564

1995 4,921,005

2000 5,686,338

Construct a scatter plot with this data. Do you observe a trend? If so, what type of trend do you observe?

Use Excel to fit a linear trend and an exponential trend to the data. Display the models and their respective r^2.

Interpret both models. Which model seems to be more appropriate? Why?

*What are some example of Time Series Modeling ( In your own words Use 50 words no resources)

*What is Time Series Modeling important in a business. ( In your own words Use 50 words no resources)

Create a compensation and benefits package using the business proposal format in the Assignment 4 Outline.

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Crafting a Compensation and Benefits Plan

Create a compensation and benefits package using the business proposal format in the Assignment 4 Outline. Download Assignment 4 Outline Word document. The package must be consistent with the objectives of job satisfaction for the valuable employees in an organization of your design.

Include the following:

Salaries and benefits packages of comparable organizations in the same industry.

What employees working in the 21st century consider to be benefits

Demonstrate knowledge of a range of frameworks of strategy and creativity appropriate for the evaluation of complex situations in organisations.

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Strategy and innovation – Assignment 2 – ‘Heaven Scent Floral Designs’ Analysis

⦁ Demonstrate knowledge of a range of frameworks of strategy and creativity appropriate for the evaluation of complex situations in organisations.

⦁ Use appropriate methods to analyze an organization and its context in order to generate coherent, innovative strategic options and choice.

Evaluate the major strategic decisions made during the six-round BSG simulation. Reflect on one round that stood out, why and key lessons learnt.

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Fure from the BSG game

1. Evaluate the major strategic decisions made during the six-round BSG simulation. Reflect on one round that stood out, why and key lessons learnt. 30 marks

2. Reflect on relevant theoretical frameworks applicable to understanding the internal, external and competitive environments of your business; and discuss how these frameworks helped in shaping decisions made in your BSG. 30 marks

3. Critically evaluate the impact of ONE specific emerging technology on the future of your business and make useful recommendations to future managers. 30 marks

4. Present a high standard and professional reflective report.

Critically evaluate new and emerging digital business models in the context of key business issues such as cyber security and ethics that your chosen business uses or may use.

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Strategies and operations for a e-commerce business

Choose a well-established digital business or e-commerce business in a B2B or B2C context. The chosen business must have a well-developed website, where you can find information about their strategies and operations. You are taking the role of an independent digital/e-commerce business consultant tasked to evaluate the strategies that the chosen digital/ e-commerce business is applying based on the tasks outlined below and complete these in a report.

The tasks include:

1. Provide an overview of key trends and advantages of digital technology and implications for managing virtual business in the global environment by drawing on your chosen business.

2. Critically evaluate new and emerging digital business models in the context of key business issues such as cyber security and ethics that your chosen business uses or may use.

3. Evaluate the impact of new collaborative relationships and strategic alliances through digital technology for your chosen business.

4. Discuss how e-commerce principles could be used by your chosen business.

Write a 1-2 page essay considering the types of stock you might issue if you were financing a new business corporation.

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Financing a new business corporation

Write a 1-2 page essay considering the types of stock you might issue if you were financing a new business corporation. In addition consider whether you would market the stock, either privately or publicly.