What are the advantages and disadvantages of terminating or renegotiating contracts?

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Implications of contract terminations

What are the advantages and disadvantages of terminating or renegotiating contracts?

Demonstrate understanding of causal inference and the ability to apply econometric methods in the context of economics and finance, including randomised experiments, matching, regression analysis, instrumental variables and two-stage least squares, as well panel data and time series analysis. Formulate and solve different classes of optimisation problems via software. Demonstrate ability to run Monte-Carlo simulation. Understand core problems of machine learning (supervised and unsupervised learning) and to implement standard algorithms from ML. Demonstrate knowledge of data-base theory and different approaches to storing data.

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UCAS Personal Statement

Programme Overview

The BSc Economics, Finance and Data Science is set against the backdrop of increasing demand for graduates with academic training in economics and finance whose analytical skills are complemented with knowledge of data science and coding capabilities. Whilst economics and finance form the basis of rigorous undergraduate programmes in leading institutions across the sector, these have not historically included the study of data science as part of the curriculum, leaving graduates to develop these skills independently. The BSc Economics, Finance and Data Science degree draws on the academic expertise of all Departments in Imperial College Business School (Economics and Public Policy; Finance; Analytics, Marketing and Operations; Management and Entrepreneurship) to offer students the rigorous study of economics and finance, enriched through the study of data science and its applications within these disciplines. A further dedicated sequence of modules develops the essential skills identified by employers. Through the study of economics students will analyse how households, firms and governments behave and interact to determine income, wealth and well-being, and hence inform both business decisions and public policy design. Years 1 and 2 include a theoretical exploration at the individual level through core Microeconomics modules, and at the aggregate level through core Macroeconomics modules.

The importance of evaluating frameworks against an evidence base is emphasised throughout, with students engaging in quantitative data analysis. Through the study of finance students will develop a core understanding of financial markets, financial institutions as well as the design of financial instruments. In Accounting students will construct and interpret financial statements, while in Corporate Finance students explore how firms can maximise value through financing and investment decisions, paving the way to finance options in Year 3. Both finance and economics interact heavily with mathematical and statistical methods. Through core Econometrics modules students develop an in-depth theoretical understanding of empirical methods relevant to economics and finance, alongside key applications enhanced by the study of data science. Students will learn to programme from the outset, which alongside modules in Machine Learning, Databases and Cloud Computing, will offer the tools with which to address a wide range of empirical questions, using both small and large datasets.

The core curriculum is further enhanced by a cross-cutting module designed to develop skills identified as essential by employers, such as strong communication and presentation skills (e.g. the ability to communicate ideas visually and verbally), effective teamwork in diverse organisations, critical thinking, design thinking and a creative mindset to problem solving. It integrates a new type of management skills training focused on Leadership, Ethics, Awareness, Diversity and Societal Impact (LEADS). In their final year students will be able to choose from specialist electives in Economics, Finance, Data Science, in addition to electives from all academic areas within the Business School. These reflect the broad scope of expertise within the Business School, in areas such as health, energy and climate change and innovation and entrepreneurship. The final year structure is sufficiently flexible to allow students to specialise in either of the three fields through appropriate selection of Year 3 modules, so as to enable access to leading Masters programmes in either of the three disciplines. Students who prefer to continue with a mix of electives across the three areas of study can also do so.

Learning Outcomes

Upon successful completion of FHEQ Level 4 of BSc Economics, Finance, and Data Science programme students will:
• Comprehend a range of microeconomic concepts and modelling frameworks and be able to competently apply them to analyse a range of decision problems of consumers and firms, using appropriate quantitative methods, and to evaluate the effects of economic policy on decisions and outcomes.

• Structure and solve economic and finance problems in mathematical format, as well as to interpret these mathematical solutions in terms of their “real world” economic context. Understand and utilise statistical inference to in the context of economics and finance, including probability distributions, confidence intervals, hypothesis testing and correlation analysis.

• Develop programming skills and the ability to “data wrangle” and visualise data. Understand and implement some commonly used data structures.

• Demonstrate knowledge and understanding of core macroeconomic, accounting and financial concepts and principles with reference to real life applications. Use basic statistical and computational techniques (e.g. using R or Python) to produce and analyse macroeconomic, financial and accounting data and apply basic problem-solving skills and mathematical techniques to analyse basic macroeconomic and financial models.

• Develop intellectual, cognitive and transferable skills such as communication and analysis of data, theory and evidence.

• Apply innovative and creative thinking and problem-solving skills to complex, ambiguous, uncertain, and systemic problems. Explore, define and reframe problems, and generate solutions or alternative approaches for existing ones.

Upon successful completion of FHEQ Level 5 of BSc Economics, Finance, and Data Science programme students will:
• Comprehend microeconomic modelling frameworks that relate to the interaction of decision-makers within a market and otherwise and be able to appropriately apply these to different contexts and to evaluate policy issues, interpret analytical findings, and critically evaluate these against relevant evidence.

• Demonstrate understanding of causal inference and the ability to apply econometric methods in the context of economics and finance, including randomised experiments, matching, regression analysis, instrumental variables and two-stage least squares, as well panel data and time series analysis.

• Formulate and solve different classes of optimisation problems via software. Demonstrate ability to run Monte-Carlo simulation. Understand core problems of machine learning (supervised and unsupervised learning) and to implement standard algorithms from ML. Demonstrate knowledge of data-base theory and different approaches to storing data.

• Recognise and explain the importance and practical implications of risk and uncertainty in macroeconomics and finance. Define and describe a selection of basic dynamic macroeconomic and
financial models, together with their applications to asset pricing, portfolio choice and macroeconomics. Demonstrate an understanding of corporate financial decisions, such as capital structure and discounted cash flow analysis.

• Apply relevant econometric and computational methods to develop computer code designed to analyse data/models and assess the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies and financial decisions. Further develop intellectual, cognitive and transferable skills, including written and verbal communication.

• Demonstrate the ability to articulate ideas and concepts visually and verbally, embracing uncertainty and seeking new opportunities by exploration and experimentation. Understand how to communicate and perform effectively within a team and within an organisation.

Upon successful completion of FHEQ Level 6 of BSc Economics, Finance, and Data Science programme students will:

• Have developed knowledge in a number of specialised areas in microeconomics and be able to synthesise and evaluate research literature in these areas, proficiently analyse microeconomic issues using advanced analytical methods and creatively formulate and address research questions pertaining to these areas.

• Demonstrate the ability to use state-of-the-art econometrics and data science methods to address applied problems in economics and finance. This arsenal of methods may encompass panel data (static and dynamic models), fixed and random effects models, the estimation of local average and marginal treatment effects using instrumental variables, GMM, textual analysis and big data.

• Define, describe and compare dynamic macroeconomic and financial models by using appropriate econometric, machine learning and computational methods, to provide economic policy and financial guidance. Apply financial economics to selected topics, such as: asset management, derivatives, risk management, banking and financial intermediation, corporate governance, and dynamic asset pricing.

• Justify, interpret and communicate insights from the evaluation of real-world problems in finance and economics. Transfer the analytical skills developed in the context of economics to other settings. Develop system thinking and apply empathy to define solutions via leadership, ethics, awareness, diversity and societal impact (LEADS).

Classify civilian labor force in Riverside into one of the following unemployment types: structural, cyclical, and frictional unemployment and explain why Calculate how many of civilian labor force in Riverside would fall into each type of unemployment. Discuss the change in price level and real GDP based on the events occurring in the scenario.

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Case Study BUS218

Choose three from four available tasks above, and write an economic report using at least 200 words for each task. (This means the total number of words must be 600 for three tasks, at the minimum) The essay will be graded based on the grade rubric which you can find in week 8 learning activities. Make sure you provide biblical perspectives in your report.

You also need to include any references (including textbook) using the appropriate APA format.

Suppose you are a junior macroeconomists working for an economic consulting firm in California. Recently you are assigned to tasks with four important economic issues.

Task 1:
Categorize the following groups of people by different types(structural, cyclical, or frictional) of unemployment and report it to the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) in a month. The document you receive has the following information:
“There are 330,000 people reside in Riverside. Among them, 40% of the population is civilian labor force. The 15% of civilian lost their jobs because their job skills are not required any longer. 30% of civilian workers are unemployed because the economy is busted. 55% of remaining civilian workers are actively looking for jobs.”
Classify civilian labor force in Riverside into one of the following unemployment types: structural, cyclical, and frictional unemployment and explain why
Calculate how many of civilian labor force in Riverside would fall into each type of unemployment.

Task 2:
You were notified by researchers from the BEA (Bureau of Economic Analysis) that a recent growth in consumer’s confidence index decreased by 20%, while recent technological breakthrough in medical and cell phone industries led to a cost savings and an increased productivity across the nation.
(Note that consumer confidence index (CCI) measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy, and the higher the CCI, the higher the consumption.)
Discuss the change in price level and real GDP based on the events occurring in the scenario (Hint: study aggregate demand and supply shifters)

Task 3:
Recently, the US began to import wine from France. There are some opponents that argue imports will cut the price of domestic wine, leading to a decrease in the number of jobs in the US wine industry.
Provide counter-evidence that imports will bring overall benefits to our nation in terms of improving the total welfare (sum of consumer and producer surplus).

Task 4:
The exchange rate between dollar (US currency) and yen (Japan currency) was 120¥/$; and the exchange rate between dollar (US currency) and euro is 1.3€/$ in 2014, and the exchange rate increased to 130¥/$ and 1.5€/$, respectively in 2015.
Predict the pattern of export and import between those three countries in 2015 compared to 2014. In other words, would exports from US to Japan and European countries increase or decrease? Would imports from Japan and European countries to US increase or decrease?

Write the report as if they were a company or industry consultants considering the establishment/maintenance of price, quantity produced or sold, or a change in price or quantity.

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Elasticity in microeconomics

Your research paper topic will cover a specific area that relates to elasticity in microeconomics. The topic should be chosen in consultation with the professor. Students write the report as if they were a company or industry consultants considering the establishment/maintenance of price, quantity produced or sold, or a change in price or quantity.

Your paper must include the following elements (this forms the basis of the project rubric):
• Detailed elasticity analysis for a product or brand.
• Calculations for at least two types of elasticity (examples: price, income elasticity)
• Cover page, Executive Summary, Table of Contents, Analysis, Conclusions (should be the bulk of the paper, written in the role of a consultant), References, Appendices
• Links to each electronic citation used, when able. APA adherence, original work (see plagiarism standard), and full reference captions for figures, pictures, logos, or other copied work used for educational purposes

A recent article from the Wall Street Journal (WSJ, 10/25/2020) discusses the impact of President Trump’s trade policies on U.S. manufacturing. Read the article, do some research, and post your summary and analysis.

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World’s largest trading relationships

The U.S. and China engage in one of the world’s largest trading relationships. Since the start of his administration, President Trump has pursued a policy to force China to change what he describes as unfair trade practices.

A recent article from the Wall Street Journal (WSJ, 10/25/2020) discusses the impact of President Trump’s trade policies on U.S. manufacturing. Read the article, do some research, and post your summary and analysis. Make sure your summary and analysis and any discussion comments follow the instructions posted to this discussion board. And focus on the economic not political issues relevant to this topic. Comments that are well thought and follow the rules are worth 10 points.

Hint: your analysis should focus on the economic factors that influenced President Trump’s decision to impose trade restrictions on goods imported from China. Bonus: do some research on the factors responsible for declining employment in U.S. manufacturing.Your comments should be well thought out, focus on macroeconomic analysis (not politics or opinions unsupported by factual evidence), and based on the thesis and factors supporting it mentioned in the article plus any hints I supply in the introduction to the article. Your summary should be between 30-70 words in length, and your analysis should be between 150-250 words in length.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-trade-war-didnt-boost-u-s-manufacturing-might-11603618203

Analyse and evaluate the potential effects of the conversion project on the economy and environment of the city and on the social welfare of the local population, supporting your answer with reference to relevant theories and current data.

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The potential success of the proposed project from a financial and macroeconomic point of view, and to evaluate its impact on the economy, society and the environment.

Write a formal report for BEC plc’s managers which will enable them to assess the potential success of the proposed project from a financial and macroeconomic point of view, and to evaluate its impact on the economy, society and the environment.
Your report should be suitable for a general non-expert audience and should show how economists would approach the investment decision and should explain the reasoning behind this approach.

Your report should contain the following sections:

a. Explain the meaning of the time value of money. Explain and compare two time-based and two non-time-based investment appraisal techniques which may be used when assessing the financial viability of the conversion project. Illustrate these techniques by providing simple numerical examples, in line with the following instructions:

• Create two sets of simple figures to represent the cash inflows and cash outflows on two alternative building conversion projects of differing sizes;
• Use these figures to calculate the results of two time-based and two non-time-based investment appraisal techniques;
• Draw up and present a table of the results of your calculations;
• Explain your results and indicate which of the two options would be the more favourable;
• Show your calculations in an Appendix to the Report.

(approximately 600 words)

b. Analyse the main macroeconomic factors which may affect the financial success of the conversion project. You should support your answer by referring to relevant economic theories and to current economic data in your chosen country and city. Examples could include conditions in the residential and commercial property markets, the current inflation and unemployment rates, interest rates and any other relevant variables.

(approximately 700 words)

c. Analyse and evaluate the potential effects of the conversion project on the economy and environment of the city and on the social welfare of the local population, supporting your answer with reference to relevant theories and current data.

(approximately 800 words)

Analyse and evaluate the potential effects of the conversion project on the economy and environment of the city and on the social welfare of the local population, supporting your answer with reference to relevant theories and current data.

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The potential success of the proposed project from a financial and macroeconomic point of view, and to evaluate its impact on the economy, society and the environment.

Write a formal report for BEC plc’s managers which will enable them to assess the potential success of the proposed project from a financial and macroeconomic point of view, and to evaluate its impact on the economy, society and the environment.
Your report should be suitable for a general non-expert audience and should show how economists would approach the investment decision and should explain the reasoning behind this approach.

Your report should contain the following sections:

a. Explain the meaning of the time value of money. Explain and compare two time-based and two non-time-based investment appraisal techniques which may be used when assessing the financial viability of the conversion project. Illustrate these techniques by providing simple numerical examples, in line with the following instructions:

• Create two sets of simple figures to represent the cash inflows and cash outflows on two alternative building conversion projects of differing sizes;
• Use these figures to calculate the results of two time-based and two non-time-based investment appraisal techniques;
• Draw up and present a table of the results of your calculations;
• Explain your results and indicate which of the two options would be the more favourable;
• Show your calculations in an Appendix to the Report.

(approximately 600 words)

b. Analyse the main macroeconomic factors which may affect the financial success of the conversion project. You should support your answer by referring to relevant economic theories and to current economic data in your chosen country and city. Examples could include conditions in the residential and commercial property markets, the current inflation and unemployment rates, interest rates and any other relevant variables.

(approximately 700 words)

c. Analyse and evaluate the potential effects of the conversion project on the economy and environment of the city and on the social welfare of the local population, supporting your answer with reference to relevant theories and current data.

(approximately 800 words)

What’s the importance of finding you’re voice? Write an essay on how to overcome social anxiety through volunteering and discovering passions like activism and economics also art.

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Finding you’re voice

-What’s the importance of finding you’re voice?
-Write an essay on how to overcome social anxiety through volunteering and discovering passions like activism and economics also art.

Perform pseudo out-of-sample forecasting experiments for the period 2016m9 – 2021m8 Perform dynamic forecasts with STATA (The one-step forecast is used to compute the two-step forecast, and so on.). Compute the mean square prediction errors (MSPE) and compare the model performance with an average-of-last-12-months model. Perform a one-step prediction experiment, by forecasting one step ahead at each point in time.

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Econometrics analysis

Option 2: Forecasting UK Inflation

“Since Central Banks have abandoned the control of monetary aggregates and have implemented inflation targeting rules directly or indirectly, by means of aggressive Taylor rules, forecasting inflation rates has become crucial for both policy makers and private agents who try understand and react to Central Banks behaviour. Several methods have been proposed to estimate and forecast the dynamics of inflation rates but the overall performance has been, at best, mixed: the information contained in the dynamics of past inflation appear suffice and very few other variables add marginal predictive content to univariate specifications.” European Central Bank, working paper 151, Fabio Canova, 2002.

“Long-term nominal commitments such as labor contracts, mortgages and other debt, and price stickiness are widespread features of modern economies. In such a world, forecasting how the general price level will evolve over the life of a commitment is an essential part of private sector decision-making.” Jon Faust and Jonathan Wright, ‘Forecasting inflation’, Handbook of Economic Forecasting, 2013.

In this coursework, you will be fitting a univariate model (ARMA) to UK CPI inflation and use this model for a forecasting experiment. The out-of-sample forecasting performance of the model is to be compared with a benchmark model.

You will be using a monthly time series dataset which spans the period 1994m1 to 2021m8. The data is taken from the Office for National Statistics (CPI INDEX 00: ALL ITEMS 2015=100), and seasonally adjusted after download. The inflation variable, i_t, in the file “UK inflation monthly.dat”, is an annualised inflation rate in percent. It had been computed according to: i_t=1200*ln⁡(p_t/p_(t-1) ).

The assignment instructions are as follows:

  • Comment on descriptive statistics and on graphics
  • Fit an ARMA model to the data for the sample 1994m1 – 2016m8
  • Test the residuals of the model for serial correlation
  • Perform pseudo out-of-sample forecasting experiments for the period 2016m9 – 2021m8
  • Perform dynamic forecasts with STATA (The one-step forecast is used to compute the two-step forecast, and so on.).
  • Compute the mean square prediction errors (MSPE) and compare the model performance with an average-of-last-12-months model.
  • Perform a one-step prediction experiment, by forecasting one step ahead at each point in time.
  • Compute the mean square prediction errors and compare the model performance with a one-step average-of-last-12-months model.

Choose one of the examples above. Explain the social, economic, and technological environment during the disruption. What distinguishes the winners and the losers from the disruption? Be specific as to costs, expertise, organizational flexibility, strategy, risk management, etc.

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Creative Destruction Analysis

1. MBA 610 Minor Project 1 (17% weight in course grade)

Assignment—1,800 words (2,000 max., not including a list of references). Research one of the examples of creative destruction below, applying the concepts from ch 8-10.

• A leader misses an industry shift and is displaced by an innovator who dominates the changing industry.
o Blackberry phone displaced by Apple
o Blockbuster was displaced by Netflix.
• An industry leader misses an industry shift and loses out to many smaller, more nimble competitors
o Kodak dominated film photography but missed out on digital photography
o IBM dominated all aspects of computers but missed out on personal computers, mini-disc drives, etc.

• Through outperformance & scale economies a leader emerges, either absorbing or defeating potential competitors.
o Ford Motor Company outperforms hundreds of small rivals to dominate the car industry in the early 1900s
o Banking, media, and health care industries consolidate, taking advantage of economies of scale
• Disintermediation through technology-supplier connects to end-user via technology
o Amazon displaces brick and mortar retailers by selling online and shipping to homes.
o Expedia, Travelocity, Priceline, TripAdvisor, etc. replace travel agents with do-it-yourself travel planning
o Airbnb disrupts the lodging industry & Uber disrupts the taxi industry with technology that enables the “sharing economy”
o Facebook & google disrupt newspapers and other media that depend on advertising

Choose one of the examples above. Explain the social, economic, and technological environment during the disruption. What distinguishes the winners and the losers from the disruption? Be specific as to costs, expertise, organizational flexibility, strategy, risk management, etc.

Note that this project is graded using the Minor Project Rubric (MBA 610). Please click on the underlined ‘Minor Project’ heading above and then look at the rubric so that you know how the project will be evaluated.