What did you think the probability of winning the car was, before you watched the video? How can you use probability and probability rules in arriving at the answer? What probability ideas does this demonstrate and use?

MODULE 3: PROBABILITY PROJECT

The purpose of this Probability Project is to show your understanding of what you have learned in Module 3. You will watch a video and apply the appropriate probability concepts from this module. You will discuss your !earnings in a 2-page paper as outlined below.
Instructions
This is a fun assignment to do. In chapter 5 you learned about basic probability and learned about conditional probability. Now, you get to see these two in action. You may have heard of the TV game: “Let’s Make a Deal,” where at the end of the show, contestants are presented with 3 doors and they are informed that behind one of the doors is a brand-new car. So, the contestant chooses one of three doors. Then the game show host (First one was Monty Hall), opens a door and reveals a goat. Then Monty asks if the contestant wants to switch or not. So, the question is, what is the probability of winning? Should I stay, or should I switch? What would you do?
Imagine that the set of Monty Hall’s game show Let’s Make a Deal has three closed doors. Behind one of these doors is a car; behind the other two are goats. The contestant does not know where the car is, but Monty Hall does. The contestant picks a door and Monty opens one of the remaining doors, one he knows doesn’t hide the car. If the contestant has already chosen the correct door, Monty is equally likely to open either of the two remaining doors. After Monty has shown a goat behind the door that he opens, the contestant is always given the option to switch doors. What is the probability of winning the car if she stays with her first choice? What if she decides to switch? Think about what you think the answer is: stay or switch?
1. Watch a TEDEd video that explains the problem: “Should I stay or should I switch doors?”
2. Write a paper that includes:
a. What did you think the probability of winning the car was, before you watched the video? (3 points)
b. Information from the video what the answer really is (3 points)
c. How can you use probability and probability rules in arriving at the answer? What probability ideas does this demonstrate and use? Explain and give examples. You may use other sources as well but make sure to cite them (you may want to watch the extended version of the video if you are not sure, watch the Monty Hall Problem video. (15 points)
d. Are you surprised by the answer to the question “stay or switch”? Does it make sense? (3 points)
e. 2 pages long, using size 12 font, double spaced, cover page, references included. (3 points) References Should I stay or should I switch doors? (n.d.). Retrieved from https://ed.ted.com/featured/PWb09pny

Calculate the expected return and standard deviation for the returns of each asset. Which portfolios are efficient? Calculate the expected return and the standard deviation of the minimum-variance portfolio, G. 

Calculations and Analysis


You are given the following distributions of returns for two assets, X and Y:

Probability
Returns
X

%

Y

%

0.2
11 3
0.2
9 15
0.2
25 2
0.2
7 20
0.2
2 6
A . Calculate the expected return and standard deviation for the returns of each asset
(2 marks)
B . Calculate the covariance between the returns of asset X and asset Y. 
(2 marks)
C .
Complete the table below for the mean and standard deviation of the given portfolios.  (3 marks)
Hint: Use the weights in decimals in the calculations and then covert your answers into percentages. A few results are calculated for you in the table.

Percentage in X
Percentage in Y E(rP)
(%)

σP

(%)

125
25
100
0
75
25 9.50 6.18
50
50
25
75 8.50 5.96
0
100
25
125 7.50 11.42

D . Discuss your results. (2 marks)
E . Next, sketch the following relationships:

a. Between the expected return on the portfolios and the weight, w, invested in asset X.

b. Between the standard deviation of the portfolios and the weight in X.

c. Between the mean and standard deviation of the portfolios in a single graph (the meanstandard deviation plane).

(3 marks)

F . Discuss your plots.
(2 marks)

G . Which portfolios are efficient? (2 marks)
H .
The minimumvariance portfolio weight in X, w*, is given by: YXXY22 YXXY2

The minimumvariance portfolio is also called the global minimumvariance portfolio.
Find w* using this formula.
(2 marks)

I . Calculate the expected return and the standard deviation of the minimumvariance portfolio, G. 
(2 marks

Draw tree-diagrams to show the possible paths of the share price and call price over one six-month period. Would the analyst price the European call option at, above, or below the original price calculated in Part c? Why?

Calculations and Analysis

A share now sells for $40.00. This price will either increase by 10% (by a factor of u = 1.10) or decrease by 20% (by a factor of d = 0.80) over a sixmonth period. A European call option on this share has an exercise price of $42 and a time to expiry of six months. The riskfree rate is 6% per year. Use the oneperiod binomial option pricing model to find the price of the call option. You should present your calculations and explanations as follows:

a. Draw treediagrams to show the possible paths of the share price and call price over one sixmonth period. [2 Marks]
Note: Show the numbers that are known and use letter(s) for what is unknown in your diagrams.

b. Compute the hedge ratio and show clearly how to form a perfect hedge. [1 Marks]

c. Find the call option price. Explain your calculations clearly. [2 Marks]
An analyst disagrees with the current share price movement predictions and believes that the share  price will either increase by 20% or decrease by 30% over a sixmonth period. Assume that the  European call option has the same exercise price and the same time to expiry.

d. Would the analyst price the European call option at, above, or below the original price calculated in Part c? Why? [Maximum: 200 words] [5 Marks]

Find the minimum number of lines required to hit every vertex of a 10 ×10 square grid of dots, if no line is allowed to be horizontal or vertical. Find the minimum number of squares which must initially be covered in grass to ensure that the whole chessboard is eventually covered in grass.

Math/Physic/Economic/Statistic Problems

Final version, updated 21/10 (hints added 25/10)
“W3” means you are particularly equipped (and encouraged) to solve these problems before week 4.

1. Warm-up questions (Do these, but do not turn them in.)
(1) W3 Let n k 1 be integers.

(a) A function from {1,…,k} to {1,…,n} is called strictly increasing if f(1) < f(2) < ···< f(k 1) < f(k). How many strictly increasing functions are there from {1,…,k} to {1,…,n}?
(b) A function from {1,…,k} to {1,…,n} is called non-decreasing if f(1) f(2) ≤···≤f(k 1) f(k). How many non-decreasing functions are there from {1,…,k} to {1,…,n}? (Hint: Consider the numbers f(1) 1,f(2) f(1),f(3) f(2),…,f(k) f(k 1),n f(k).)

(2) W3 Show that S(n,n1) = (n 2 ) and S(n,2) = 2n1 1. Find a closed formula for S(n,n2). (Recall that S(n,k) is the number of set partitions of [n] into k nonempty subsets.) A previous version had S(n,n 3) – the new version is less complicated.

(3) W3 Show that the number of partitions of n into at most k parts is equal to the number pk(n) of partitions of n + k into exactly k parts. (This is the number ways of distributing n unlabeled balls in k unlabeled boxes.)

(4) W3 Suppose n is a positive integer satisfying the condition that the number of self-conjugate partitions of n is even. What can you say about the parity of p(n)?

 

2. Problems to be turned in
(1) W3 Let n be a nonnegative integer. Let An be the set of subsets of {1,…,n} that do not contain any consecutive pair of numbers. For example, A3 = {∅,{1},{2},{3},{1,3}}.
(a) Compute A0,A1,A2,A3,A4,A5.
(b) Make a conjecture about |An| for all n 1.
(c) Prove your conjecture.
(2) W3 Find a bijective proof for the identity 6S(n,3) + 6S(n,2) + 3S(n,1) = 3n.
(3) W3 Find a bijective proof for the identity Bn = n1 k=0 (n1 k )Bk. (Recall Bn is the number of set partitions of [n] into nonempty subsets.)
(4) W3
(a) Let n 2. Prove that the number of partitions of n in which the two largest parts are equal (e.g. 5 + 5 + 3 + 1) is equal to p(n) p(n 1).
(b) Find/prove a formula, along the same lines, for the number of partitions of n 3 in which the three largest parts are equal.
(c) Prove that the sequence p(n) p(n 1) (for n 2) is nondecreasing. (That is, show that (p(n) p(n 1)) (p(n 1) p(n 2) 0 holds.)
(5) The following three problems are glimpses of extremal combinatorics. Solve at least one of them. (These are all slightly tricky — if you do not come up with a complete solution, record your best attempt.)

(a) Find the minimum number of lines required to hit every vertex of a 10 ×10 square grid of dots, if no line is allowed to be horizontal or vertical. (Prove it is the minimum.)
(b) Prove that if 8 2 ×2 blocks of squares are removed from an 8 ×8 chessboard, then there is at least one 2 ×2 block in the remaining squares. Is the same true if 9 2 ×2 blocks are removed?
(c) Suppose squares of an 8 ×8 chessboard are covered in grass, which spreads as follows: Grass spreads to a square when two adjacent squares (i.e. squares that share an edge) are covered.

Find the minimum number of squares which must initially be covered in grass to ensure that the whole chessboard is eventually covered in grass. (Prove it is the minimum.)
Hints:
(a) How many points are on the edge of the square grid?
(b) Represent the 49 2 ×2 blocks of the chessboard as a 7 ×7 grid.
(c) Consider the perimeter of the grassy area.
(6) We define below sets Xn,Yn,Zn,Wn. Write down the sets for n = 1,2,3,4, and confirm the following:
|X1|= |Y1|= |Z1|= |W1|= 1
|X2|= |Y2|= |Z2|= |W2|= 2
|X3|= |Y3|= |Z3|= |W3|= 5
|X4|= |Y4|= |Z4|= |W4|= 14.
Prove that for all n, |Xn| = |Yn| = |Zn| = |Wn|. Preferably, prove this by finding explicit bi- jections. (The bijections are not very obvious this problem will require some experimentation/guesswork/creativity. Again, if you do not come up with a complete solution, record your best
attempt.)
The set Xn of north-east lattice paths from (0,0) to (n,n) that do not cross (strictly) above the diagonal line from (0,0) to (n,n). E.g. with n = 4 here is one of the 14:

The set Yn of ways of filling a 2 ×n grid of boxes with the numbers 1,…,2n (using each number once), such that rows increase from left to right, and columns increase from top to bottom, e.g. with n = 3 here is one of the 5:
1 3 4
2 5 6
The set Zn of triangulations of a (convex) (n + 2)-gon. This means a collection of noncrossing diagonals that divide the polygon into triangles, e.g. with n = 4 here are two of the 14:
1 2
3
45
6
1 2
3
45
6
The set Wn of tilings of an n ×n staircase shape with n rectangles, e.g. for n = 3 here are two of the 5:
2

Hints:
Xn to Yn: Find a bijection. There are 2n steps (each rightward or upward) in a Dyck path, and 2n numbers in the grid…
Finding a bijection from Zn to any of the others is quite tricky. If you don’t find one, try instead proving that Zn satisfies the Catalan recursion from Friday’s lecture: |Zn+1|= n i=0 |Zi||Zni|.
(Each triangulation contains exactly one triangle whose vertices are 1,2,i for some i.)
For Wn: Again, if you do not find a bijection to one of the other sets, try proving the same recursion as is in the last hint. The n squares along the staircase must all be in different rectangular tiles — and one of these tiles must contain the square in the northwest corner.
3. Optional problems
(1) Pick a random permutation of [n]. On average, how many fixed points does it have? (Recall that i [n] is a fixed point for a permutation σ : [n] [n] if ball i goes in box i. That is, σ(i) = i.)
(2) How many coefficients of the polynomial (1 + x + x2)n are not divisible by 3?
(3) (Hard – I don’t know an answer to this one) 13 children sit in a circle. They have 12 chocolates in total, divided up between them. They shuffle chocolates as follows – each child who has 2 or more chocolates passes one chocolate right and one chocolate left. They then repeat this process. Prove that no matter how the chocolates are distributed at the beginning, the children eventually reach a state where 12 of them each have 1 chocolate, and 1 of them has no chocolates

Explain the difference between joint(nonexclusive) events and disjoint(mutually exclusive) events. Explain the difference between P(A) and P(A|B). What does it mean if they are equal in value? What does it mean if they are unequal in value?


Writing Assignment I
MAT181


For each Chapter, answer each question in your own words using no more than 2-3 properly constructed sentences (correct grammar, punctuation, spelling, etc.). Be sure to include support for any “choice” answers. Use declarative sentences, citing factual information based on definitions, procedures, etc.

Chapter 1
1. Explain the difference between a population and a sample (from a
statistical point of view). (4pts)
2. Explain the difference between quantitative variable and qualitative variable. (4pts)

3. Explain the difference between descriptive statistics and inferential statistics. (4pts)


Chapter 2

1. For a dataset, without constructing of the frequency distribution table; how to obtain the class width of frequency distribution table if the number of classes is given? (2pts)

Note: Use the formula in the slides; here frequency distribution table is not provided.

2. Explain the difference between a frequency distribution table and a relative frequency distribution table (4pts)

Chapter 3
1. Explain the difference between mean and median. Is mean always larger than median? (4pts)


2. Explain the difference between μ and
x . How do you determine
which is appropriate to use in a problem? (4pts)

3. Explain the difference between σ and s. How do you determine which
is appropriate to use in a problem? (4pts)

4. What is the relationship between variance and standard deviation? (2pts

5. Explain the difference between range and interquartile range. (4pts)
6. Explain what the coefficient of variation is. What is the advantage of using it compared to standard deviation? (4pts)


Chapter 4

1. Explain the meaning of “Event with equally likely outcomes”. (4pts)


2. Explain the difference between joint(nonexclusive) events and disjoint(mutually exclusive) events. (4pts)


3. Explain the difference between P(A) and P(A|B). What does it mean if they are equal in value? What does it mean if they are unequal in value? (4pts)

4. Explain the difference between P(A|B) and P(B|A). Must they be equal in value? (4pts)

5. Explain the difference between Permutation and Combination. (4pts)

Chapter 5
1. Explain what a discrete random variable is. List examples.(4pts)

2. What are the requirements for a discrete probability distribution? (4pts)

3. Explain what binomial probability distribution is.
Hint: list requirements in slides.(4pts)

Chapter 6

1. Explain what a continuous random variable is. List examples. (4pts)

2. Explain some basic characteristics of Normal Distribution. (4pts)


3. What is the standard Normal Distribution? (2pts)


4. Explain the difference between a raw score (x value) and a standard score(z value). (4pts)


5. How to convert a raw score to a standard score; and how to convert a standard score to a raw score? (4pts)

What city or cities are in the upper 3rd quartile? Or the bottom quartile? How do these predictors compare to the baseline of NYC? What cost more or less money than NYC?

MATH302 Final Project Description

Evaluation/Grading of your Final Project

Math 302 Final Project will open up Friday morning of Week 6 in the course. You have 3 full weekends to review and work on the Final Project.


Content addressed in the Final Project

In the final project, you are given a data set and a regression output. The concept of a data set should be something that you are familiar with because you collected one during Week 1. There are descriptive statistics that go along with said data set, which should also be familiar because you calculated descriptive statistics during Week 2.
The Regression output won’t look familiar to you until Week 7. Once you go through the Lessons and the Discussion Forum, (particularly your second response post) you should be familiar on how to run a Regression and what a Regression output looks like from the ToolPak. By the end of Week 7, you will have all the information needed to write up the Final Project. There is nothing new that you learn in Week 8 needed for the write up of the final project.

Final Project Overview

The final project is worth 100 points and no calculations are needed. You will write up an Executive Summary on what city you chose to open a second location in and justify the results. Again, no calculations are needed because you will be writing up your own Executive Summary that will then be submitted through Turnitin. From Turnitin, an originality report will be generated. No Turnitin report should exceed 20% of originality because you are writing this up in your own words. If any originality report is over 20%, then further action will need to be required from your instructor. This can include an automatic failure and 0 for plagiarism. If you have questions on what Academic Plagiarism is, please contact your instructor.


Grading Breakdown:

1) Executive Summary up to 10%

a. Please review what an Executive Summary looks like:

What is an Executive Summary?

b. Must have cover page.

2) Grammar up to 10%

a. Spell and grammar check your work.

b. Make sure you have correct punctuation and complete sentences.

3) State significant predictors up to 25%

a. Must state which predictors are significant at predicting Cost of Living and how
do you know.

b. Show the comparison to alpha to state your results and conclusion.

c. Do these significant predictors make sense, if you want to relocate?

4) Discuss descriptive statistics for the significant predictors up to 25%
a. From the significant predictors, review the mean, median, min, max, Q1 and Q3
values.

b. What city or cities fall above or below the median and/or the mean?

c. What city or cities are in the upper 3rd quartile? Or the bottom quartile?

d. How do these predictors compare to the baseline of NYC? What cost more or
less money than NYC?

5) Recommend at least 2 cities to open a second location in up to 30%

a. You must justify your answer for full credit.

b. You need to use the Significant Predictors AND Descriptive Statistics in your
justification.

c. Justification without the use of Significant Predictors WILL NOT get full credit.

d. Justification without the use of Descriptive Statistics WILL NOT get full credit.
You need to use both.

e. For example, let’s look back at London. London at 88.33, is 11.67% less
expensive than NYC. But that doesn’t mean London is a good place to open a
second location once you discuss the significant predictors and how it relates
back to each city.

f. Use what you have learned in the course and analyze all the data not just what
you see on the surface.

g. You must use the numbers and the output to justify your answers. Do not use
any outside resources to justify your answer. Only use Significant Predictors
AND Descriptive Statistics.

What is the rule for finding the number of servings eaten? Why does it work? How many pizzas are in a full order? How many oranges make up 1 adult serving? How many gallons of water fill one full container?

Week 7 hw

1. Let’s Generalize: One serving of rice is 2/3 of a cup.
a) I ate 1 cup of rice. How many servings of rice did I eat?

b) I ate 2 cups of rice. How many servings of rice did I eat?

c) I ate 5 cups of rice. How many servings of rice did I eat?

d) What is the rule for finding the number of servings eaten? Why does it work?
𝑎÷𝑐
𝑑 =

Solve each problem using a math drawing. Write a corresponding math expression.
2. How many cups of popcorn make a serving if 6 cups of popcorn make
a) 2 servings?

b) 1
2 of a serving?

3. If 2
3 of John’s order is 4 pizzas, how many pizzas are in a full order?

4. Suppose 11
3 oranges is 2
5 of an adult serving. How many oranges make up 1
adult serving?

5. If 61
4 gallons of water can fill 5
6 of a container, how many gallons of water fill
one full container?

6. A long distance runner covers 21
4 miles in 3
5 hour. How many miles can the runner cover in 1 hour?

Explain how compound interest works in your own words. Explain the two different forecasting plans with pros and cons for each. Present your calculations for each plan. Be sure to state the formula and outputs.

Initial Thread

First, do some research at your local bank, through your retirement investment firm, or by reading articles on stock analysis. This can be done virtually. Investigate the financial terms of several investment options. What interest rate is being offered? Is the interest compounded daily, monthly, or yearly? Do your best to find out the financial details for at least two different investment options. You will be citing your references in APA style.

Second, do some investment calculations. You may use a scientific calculator. For your investment:

Choose an amount between $5,000 and $500,000 of extra capital for principal, P, the initial amount of money to invest.
Choose between 5 and 30 years for t, the number of years you will let the account grow.
Based on your research findings:

Use the rate for r, the investment growth rate per year.
If using the compound interest formula, use the appropriate value for n depending on if the compounding is performed on a daily, monthly, or yearly basis. If compounding is continuous, then you will use a different formula called the continuous compounding formula.
Compound Interest: Continuously Compounding Interest:

Two formulas: 1. Compound interest formula: A equals P times the quantity one plus r divided by n raised to the n times t power. 2. Continuously compounding interest formula: A equals P times e raised to the r times t power.

Third, reflect on your calculations and present your financial guidance in a project report. You will make two different plans based on an aggressive and conservative forecast of the market. (You may also make a combination of the two rates, allocating different investment amounts that total your initial capital.) Your project report should contain the following:

Introduction: One paragraph describing how investment could be beneficial to the company.
Three body paragraphs addressing each of the following:
Explain how compound interest works in your own words.
Explain the two different forecasting plans with pros and cons for each.
Present your calculations for each plan. Be sure to state the formula and outputs.
Conclusion: One paragraph summarizing your financial considerations and findings and their significance to the company.
Project Report Guide
Professional written reports should have an introduction, body, and conclusion. A good way to plan this project report is to write an introduction to the report. Next, write at least three body paragraphs and address each of the points listed above. End your report with a conclusion paragraph tying all of your ideas together. The report should be at least five paragraphs in length. A title page and reference page are also required.

You are expected to use at least one outside source for this report. Cite outside sources in proper APA format. You can find numerous APA resources in the Writing Center Writing Reference Library on the Research, Citation, and Plagiarism page.
Using Sources

Your report should include a highly developed purpose and viewpoint; it should also be written in Standard English and demonstrate exceptional content, organization, style, grammar, and mechanics. There should be no evidence of plagiarism. If you are unsure about what constitutes plagiarism, please review the plagiarism policy.

Design your own game, which should be a game that could be played at a carnival, amusement park, or casino. What is needed to play the game? List all materials needed (dice, spinner, balls, etc). How many participants are needed to play, and is there a limit?

Probability Game

You will design your own game, which should be a game that could be played at a carnival, amusement park, or casino. You are encouraged to create a game that either doesn’t already exist, or exists but you add your own twist to the game. It cannot be an exact duplicate of an already existing game. The game does not have to be fair. You will be expected to explain the probability of your game.

You will submit a 1-2 page report that includes the following:

Introduction – Provide an overview of the game; what type of game is it? Where would this game be played?
Instructions – Step-by-Step instructions for how to play the game.
Game Description – What is needed to play the game? List all materials needed (dice, spinner, balls, etc). How many participants are needed to play, and is there a limit?
Probability Analysis – What is the theoretical probability of the game? (Include all outcomes). Is the game fair? If the game is not fair, how could the game be changed to make it so?
Individual Reflection
Your final submission includes written report as a Word doc format.

Why do you think statistics often has a bad name? Why do you think people often feel that “the statistics do not apply to me”? Has your increased knowledge of statistics changed your attitude or behavior?

Statistics

Watch the Video (link) https://mediaplayer.pearsoncmg.com/assets/NYAAn56VftwGbMiYYF91JjUmv14SaFRO

This is a discussion Post
The video makes the point that though nobody wants to think that they are a statistic, acting as if you are a statistic can help you make better decisions. That said, statisticians should never forget that the numbers they analyze correspond to real people, who have friends, relatives, and stories to tell.

Option 3: Respond to the following questions.

Why do you think statistics often has a bad name?
Why do you think people often feel that “the statistics do not apply to me”?
Has your increased knowledge of statistics changed your attitude or behavior?
Briefly discuss your changed attitude or behavior the context of a specific example.