Discuss how your findings can be useful to policy makers. What policy implications can be drawn from this analysis?

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TheExcelfile“money.xlsx“(availablefromSurreyLearn/Coursework)providesadatasettoanalyse the demand for moneyin the US. The data represent a sample observed over the period 1950.Q1–2000.Q4. The description of the variables (all seasonally adjusted) in the file is givenbelow:M1(m)=real money supply.INF(inf)=inflation rate.REALGDP(y)=real GDP.TBILRATE(tbilrate)=treasury bills (a proxy for the interestrate).

QuestionsUse the data provided to answerALLthe questionsbelow.

Q1. Plot the time series of all the variables. Describe and discuss dynamics of the data. How does money supply dynamics compare to the other three variables? [5 Marks]

Q2. Estimate thestatic demand for money equation below:𝑙𝑚𝑡=𝛽0+𝛽1𝑖𝑛𝑓𝑡+𝛽2𝑙𝑦𝑡+𝛽3𝑡𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑡+𝑢𝑡(1)where:𝑙𝑚𝑡isnatural log of real money supply, 𝑙𝑦𝑡is the natural logarithm of real gdp, 𝑢𝑡is the error termand tis a subscript referring to time.

a)Estimate model(1)above using OLS. Report the estimation output.[4marks]

b)Carefully interpret the estimated coefficients including the intercept.Are the signs of the coefficients consistent with what you expect? Explain your reasoning.[4 marks]

c)Perform tests for the statistical significance of the coefficientsof the independent variables inflation, real GDP and interest rateusing critical values corresponding tothet–distribution and the test p–values. Carefully state the null and alternative hypotheses. Interpret your results.[4marks][12Marks]

Q3.a)Perform a joint significance test for the independent variables of the modelin (1)using the critical values corresponding to the F–distribution and the test p–values.Carefully state the null and alternative hypotheses.Interpret your results.[3 marks]

3b)Comment on the goodness of fit of the modelin(1).[2 marks][5Marks]

Q4. a)Using at least two different plots,provide a graphical analysis of the residualsinmodel(1)to detect the presence of autocorrelation. Do you find evidence of autocorrelation? Explain your reasoning.[3marks]

b)What are the consequences of autocorrelation on the OLS estimator?[3 marks]c)Test for autocorrelation in the residuals using an appropriate procedure.[4 marks][10Marks]

Q5. Suppose money supply in equation (1) is not directly observed and we have the long run demand for money. The desired level is defined as follows:𝑙𝑛𝑀𝑡−𝑙𝑛𝑀𝑡−1=𝛿(𝑙𝑛𝑀𝑡∗−𝑙𝑛𝑀𝑡−1)

(2)a)How does the model in equation (1) change?[3marks]

b)State and estimate the new specification. Interpret the estimation output. [2marks]c)Based on part

(b) above, what is the speed of adjustment to the long run level?[2marks]d)Using the new specificationin (b), derive the long run static model. How does it compare to the estimated specification based on equation (1).[3marks][10Marks]

Q6. Test for autocorrelation in the residuals (from the regression in Q5) using an appropriate procedure.[5Marks]

Q7. The presence of real GDP, inflation, and lagged dependent variable in the specification in Q5 may lead to an endogeneity issue.a)Explain and discuss what is the issue of endogeneity in the context of this question.[3marks]b)What are the implications of the presence endogeneity on OLS?[2marks]c)How would you accountfor the presence of endogeneity?[3marks][8Marks]

Q8. Estimate the model in Q5 using Two Stage Least Squares (TSLS). Answer the following questions:a)Define the set of instrumentsused to estimate the model. Justify the reasonsof your selected set of instruments.[4marks]b)Compare the qualitative and statistical interpretation of the TSLS estimated

4model to that estimated using OLSin Q5. Which model is more consistent and conform toeconomic theory?[4marks]c)Using this specification and TSLS estimates, derive the long run static model. How does it compare to (i) the estimated specification based on equation (1)in Q2 and (ii) to that derived based on (Q5–d).[4marks][12Marks]Q9. The model estimated in equation(1)may be spuriousdue to the presence of unit roots. a)Perform the ADF unit root test on all variablesin equation (1). State clearly the hypothesis being tested, the data generating process, the lag length selection criteriaand the critical values. Isthere evidence that the data containsa unit root? [6marks]b)What is the order of integration of the variables tested in part (a)above?.[4marks]c)Perform the Engle–Granger cointegration test. Are the variables cointegrated? State clearly hypothesis being tested, the data generating process,the lag lengthselection criteriaand the critical values.[5marks][15Marks]

Q10. Discuss how your findings can be useful to policy makers. What policy implications can be drawn from this analysis?

Complete a 2000 – 2500 word data analysis report outlining the data measures, trends across the two-year period, and any correlations or patterns you deem relevant, in your goal of providing a coherent overview of how crime patterns changed in this town from 2018 to 2019.

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Emerging from the 2020/2021 COVID-19 period, senior Gardaí and policy- makers wish to use pre-pandemic crime reporting to consider whether local policing strategies were effective and should be introduced nationally. This town’s 2019 policing to reduce theft is one such case study.
Complete a 2000 – 2500 word data analysis report outlining the data measures, trends across the two-year period, and any correlations or patterns you deem relevant, in your goal of providing a coherent overview of how crime patterns changed in this town from 2018 to 2019.  Do not exceed the amount of words or the professor won’t grade it.
Include a short introduction summarising your principal findings and a conclusion section making any relevant recommendations for how this data might be supplemented, different categorised, or otherwise provide for an improved analysis in future years.
Provide any replications or reorganisations of the initial data, any tables, graphs, visualisation, etc., as appendices to your report.
You must include at least three graphs/visualisations, at minimum.
In your report and especially in your conclusions, thoroughly address the strategy changes in 2019 acknowledged by the Gardaí (to mitigate theft offenses), providing your analysis of the effectiveness of their measures, and any resulting changes for other crime types.

Does parental income and education influence BMI?

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Does parental income and education influence BMI?

Describe at least one confidence interval of the poll by providing its endpoints and interpret what it means in this example.

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Visit the website or any other public opinion polling site and find a poll that interests you personally or professionally.
Give the topic of the poll, the sample size, and margin of error.
Explain what the margin of error means for this poll, based on the formula for the margin of error.
Describe at least one confidence interval of the poll by providing its endpoints and interpret what it means in this example.

Write a brief report providing the requested information and describing the computations (estimation models) you used to obtain the results.

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Forecasting Assignment

You are given the following information on past workers compensation losses for XYZ Company:

 

Accident

  

 

  

Ultimate

  

Number of

  

Incident
 

Year

  

Period

  

WC Freq.

  

Employees

  

Rate
 

2014

  

1

 2,574  

26,400

  

 
 

2015

  

2

 3,659  

26,400

  

 
 

2016

  

3

 5,196  

26,400

  

 
 

2017

  

4

 7,051  

25,200

  

 
 

2018

  

5

 9,576  

24,100

  

 
 

2019

  

6

 13,105  

23,200

  

 
 

2020

  

7

 17,982  

22,400

  

 
   

 

  

 

  

 

  

 
 

Accident

  

 

  

Ultimate

  

Ultimate

  

Average
 

Year

  

Period

  

WC Freq.

  

WC Losses

  

Severity
 

2014

  

1

 2,574  

11,776,000

  

 
 

2015

  

2

 3,659  

15,997,000

  

 
 

2016

  

3

 5,196  

20,929,000

  

 
 

2017

  

4

 7,051  

25,736,000

  

 
 

2018

  

5

 9,576  

34,223,000

  

 
 

2019

  

6

 13,105  

43,115,000

  

 
 

2020

  

7

 17,982  

53,335,000

  

 

 

Given this information, compute the following information for XYZ Company:

  1. The incident rates for 2014 through 2020. Using these fit an estimation model and provide a forecast for the incident rate in 2021.  Show your estimation model.  Provide a plot of the data and comment on the fit of the model.  Also plot the transformed data if you end up transforming them.
  2. The average severity for each year from 2014 to 2020. Using these fit an estimation model and provide a forecast for the average severity in 2021.  Show your estimation model.  Provide a plot of the data and comment on the fit of the model.  Also plot the transformed data if you end up transforming them.
  3. XYZ Company estimates that it will employ 21,500 workers in 2021. Based on the forecasts you determine for incident rate and average severity, give a forecast of total WC losses for 2021.  Show your calculations.
  4. You should write a brief report providing the requested information and describing the computations (estimation models) you used to obtain the results. Be sure to provide all of the information requested in items 1 through 3.  Please submit your completed workbook (Excel) and your report (Word) in the Forecasting Assignment folder in eLC.

Excel Regressions & VLab How-To

For Windows,

Open Excel => File => Options => Add-Ins => Analysis Toolpak => Go => Analysis Toolpak => OK

Underneath the Data tab you will find Data Analysis that includes a Regression option.

 

 

Determine the differences that exist among the articles for each (sub)topic that you identified.

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Prepare a Draft: Scholarly Literature Review

Be sure to address the following:

    • Determine the commonalities among the articles for each (sub)topic. (topic of interest is Resilience of English Learners; subtopic can be similar to my topic). For example, did authors use similar frameworks, materials, or participants? Are any studies an extension of another?
    • Determine the differences that exist among the articles for each (sub)topic that you identified. If there are contradictory findings, you may (or may not) be able to identify methodological differences that could account for the contradiction (e.g., differences in measurements or participant demographics).
    • Select general conclusions you can report about a subtopic, given the relationships you inferred from the group of articles within each subtopic.
    • Consider the relationships between scholarly sources within each subtopic and drawn conclusions within each subtopic. If you take a step back and look at the entire group of subtopics and your work thus far, what overall general conclusions can you draw?

Some questions to consider include: 1) What are some general observations on the topic? 2) Are there overall themes or patterns in the literature? 3) Do the patterns or themes suggest future areas of inquiry? In this process, did you discover that you need to return to the literature and search for additional resources? Please explain.

Ensure that you identify and consider the theoretical frameworks presented in the literature you are reviewing (see Bloomberg & Volpe, 2008; Ridley, 2012). In this paper, focus on synthesizing and providing a critical analysis of the literature from at least 15 peer-reviewed sources.

Avoid simply describing one study per paragraph: Your goal is to develop an integrated synthesis of concepts, ideas, and findings. The last few paragraphs of the review should summarize the trends in the literature that you have observed and build a bridge to the need for additional research within the area.

Length: 10-pages minimum (does not include the reference list)

Your literature review draft should demonstrate thoughtful consideration of the ideas and concepts presented in the course by providing new thoughts and insights relating directly to this topic. Your response should reflect scholarly writing and current APA standards.

 

Examine the prevalence of obesity and determine the predictors that contribute to obesity in Ontario.

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Research topic: An overview of obesity in Ontario.

General objective: To examine the prevalence of obesity and determine the predictors that contribute to obesity in Ontario.

Specific objectives:

  1. To characterize and describe the prevalence and trend of obesity among youth and adult, from 2015 to 2019.
  2. To assess the relationship between gender(female, male) and obesity rate (percentage).
  3. To determine if there is significant association between male household income and obesity rate.
  4. To compare if there is significant difference between female and male in terms of obesity rate.

 

 

 

Suppose that X1 and X2 are independent discrete random variables. Show that the covariance between them is zero.

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1.A random variable Y , taking values in R+, is said to have a lognormal distribution with parameters μ and σ2 if lnY ∼ N(μ,σ2). Find the probability density function of Y .6 marks

2.Suppose that X1 and X2 are independent discrete random variables. Show that the covariance between them is zero.4 marks

3.A television quiz game operates as follows. In the first part of the game, a contestant isasked a series of difficult questions; the probability of answering any question correctly is p, independently of all other questions. This first part of the game ends as soon as the contestant answers a question incorrectly. Denote by N the total number of questions answered correctly in this first part of the game (excluding the final incorrect one). In the second part of the game, the contestant is asked a series of easy questions; here, the probability of answering any question correctly is r, independently of all other questions. The total number of questions asked in this second part of the game is N (i.e. if N = n in the first part of the game, the contestant answers n questions in the second part). The contestant’s final score, Y say, is equal to the number of correct answers in the second part of the game.(a)Find the probability mass function of N. Also state the conditional distribution of Y given N = n, including the value(s) of its parameter(s).(b)Use the Law of Total Probability to find the probability mass function of Y . Show that this pmf has the same form as thatof N, but with p replaced by another quantity which you should define.Hint: you are reminded of the series expansion (1−x)−m = 1+mx+m(m+1)x2/2+…, for |x| < 1.10 marks

Identify one categorical/nominal scale IV with more than 2 categories, and three DVs that are measured on continuous scales.

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1) Identify one categorical/nominal scale IV with more than 2 categories, and three DVs that are measured on continuous scales. Think of DV measures that probably are moderately correlated with each other because they are measuring different components of the same or similar concepts (e.g., three different measures of academic performance). What information would a one-way MANOVA provide you? What more would you want to know if you get significant results in the MANOVA? Why would this be significant to your research? (Research support is not required for this question.)