Do proposed strategies align with the organizations strengths and improve weaknesses?

HLSC 3P94: Health Administration

Fall 2019

How to Write a Case Analysis

Part 1. Situational Analysis

The purpose of the situational analysis is to demonstrate that you have a clear understanding of the organization and the current situation outlined in the case. There are two components of the situational analysis: an overview and a SWOT analysis.

  1. a) Overview (1/2 page)
  • Describe the organization with respect to:
    • Structure
    • Mission/vision/values
    • Goals/objectives
    • Culture
    • Key stakeholders
  1. b) SWOT Analysis (2-3 pages)
  • Describe the main problem that is apparent in this case with evidence from the case to support that this is the issue
  • Create your SWOT by outlining
    • Strengths/Weaknesses:
      • Internal to the organization
      • 3-4 points for EACH
    • Opportunities/Threats
      • External to the organization
      • 3-4 points for EACH
    • Include your SWOT in a chart format added as an appendix, but in the body of the text you must have a paragraph detailing each section (Strengths, Weakness, Opportunities, Threats)
  • Each point requires proof from the case and/or research to justify its classification as a strength, weakness, opportunity, threat and explain why it is relevant to the situation

When looking at strengths/weaknesses, consider the following:

  • Advantages/disadvantages of proposed change
  • Leadership (structure, knowledge, etc.)
  • Personnel
  • Finances
  • Reputation
  • Quality of services
  • Capabilities (or lack thereof)
  • Time frame/deadlines
  • Historical results of change
  • Culture
  • Structure
  • Partnerships

When looking at opportunities/threats, consider the following:

  • Change patient needs
  • Changing resource availability
  • Changing technology
  • Economic conditions
  • Political climate
  • Partnerships
  • Industry trends

Part 2. Strategic Analysis (3-4 pages)

The purpose of the strategic analysis is to critically appraise the changes that need to be made within the organization to make improvement. Using the information from the SWOT, create recommendations to help move the organization forward based on theories learned in class. When making your own recommendations your goal is to match strengths with environmental opportunities and eliminate or minimize weaknesses to avoid or manage environmental threats. You must use research evidence to support your recommendations.

  1. Analyze the changes proposed within the case:
  • Summarize the proposed changes outlined in the case (your recommendations must be different from the plan identified in the case)
  • Offer a brief assessment of whether the proposed plan is likely to be successful
  1. Create your own recommendations (4) to move the organization in the desired direction
  • Offer four recommendations that have evidence to support their implementation
  • Relate your recommendations to your SWOT (i.e. each recommendation should match a point highlighted in your SWOT)
    • Do proposed strategies align with the organizations strengths and improve weaknesses?
    • Do proposed strategies capitalize upon opportunities and minimize threats?

Additional Details: You should include a minimum of 10 references.  Readings from class can be used but students will be rewarded for conducting a more comprehensive search of the literature to be included in the paper.  APA referencing style must be used.

what are the cybersecurity implications (good or bad) for the selected critical infrastructure sector?

Technology Review #2: Emerging Application of Technology in a Critical Infrastructure

Objective

The purpose of this technology review is to identify, discuss, and evaluate the cybersecurity implications of an emerging application of technology in the context of a critical infrastructure sector. Your selected technology may be hardware, software, or systems that rely upon both hardware and software. Your research will also include an examination of the cybersecurity implications of using this technology in critical infrastructures. This type of research is also referred to as a survey of the literature. Allowable sources for your literature survey are journal articles, papers published in conference proceedings, and research studies published in dissertations.

Overview

Your audience is a group of senior executives who will be meeting to decide which emerging applications of technologies should be selected for a security-focused, Internal Research & Development projects during the next budget cycle. Each of these executives is responsible for developing products and systems that support next generation systems in the nation’s critical infrastructure sectors.

The high-level visibility for your deliverable means that you need to start from a strong foundation of suitable research-based journal articles, papers published in conference proceedings, and doctoral dissertations. The basic question that must be answered about the selected technology is: what are the cybersecurity implications (good or bad) for the selected critical infrastructure sector?

In addition, the executives have expressed the following information needs, which must be met by the deliverable for this assignment:

  • characteristics of the critical infrastructure,
  • characteristics of the technology,
  • use of the technology to support or improve cybersecurity,
  • use of the technology to reduce or manage risk,
  • use of the technology to increase resistance to threats/attacks,
  • use of the technology to decrease vulnerabilities in an existing technology application,
  • use or exploitation of the technology by attackers, criminals, terrorists, etc. to accomplish their goals.

Instructions

Format your deliverable as a “descriptive or informative” annotated bibliography. The UMUC library provides information about how to complete this type of assignment. See http://sites.umuc.edu/library/libhow/bibliography_apa.cfm (sub-heading “To get started”). APA style is recommended but, you may use another professional format for your annotated bibliography.

In addition to the list of sources and annotations, you must provide an introductory paragraph.

See the rubric for additional requirements for this assignment.

Note: If you have problems accessing any of the library databases, contact the UMUC librarians via the contact methods listed on the library’s home page https://sites.umuc.edu/library/index.cfm . They will be able to assist you with login issues and/or search engine questions (but will not do your research for you).

Choose a Critical Infrastructure Sector

“There are 16 critical infrastructure sectors whose assets, systems, and networks, whether physical or virtual, are considered so vital to the United States that their incapacitation or destruction would have a debilitating effect on security, national economic security, national public health or safety, or any combination thereof” (Department of Homeland Security, 2016, p.1).

Choose a critical infrastructure sector to focus your technology review. For definitions of critical infrastructures, see https://www.dhs.gov/critical-infrastructure-sectors. You may wish to choose your emerging application of technology first and then select an appropriate critical infrastructure in which your selected technology can be applied or deployed.

Choose an Emerging Application of Technology

Choose an emerging application of technology that can be used in the computers, digital devices, and other electronic / electrical technologies (including networks and network infrastructures) that are deployed in or used to build, operate, support, or maintain a critical infrastructure sector (e.g. utilities, pipelines, transportation, smart cities, etc.).

Suggested technologies include:

  • Autonomous Vehicles (ground, sea, or air): Transportation Systems Sector
  • Deep Space Communication Networks: Communications Sector
  • Implantable Medical Devices: Healthcare and Public Health Sector
  • Precision Agriculture (integrated systems using satellite imagery, GPS, Sensors, Robots): Food & Agriculture Sector
  • Robot inspectors for physical infrastructures (buildings, roads, railways, pipelines, etc.): Multiple Sectors
  • Smart Grid (also called Advanced Metering Infrastructure): Energy Sector
  • Wearable Sensors for Hazardous Materials Detection (e.g. CBRNE): Emergency Services Sector

You are encouraged to look for and investigate additional appropriate technologies before deciding upon your technology choice for this assignment.

If you decide to research a technology that is not on the suggested technologies list (see above), you must first request and receive your instructor’s permission.  Your instructor may require that you do preliminary library searches for research papers and technical papers to prove that you can find a sufficient number of resources to complete the assignment.

Find Appropriate Sources (“Survey the Literature”)

You may find it helpful to begin by reading the tables of contents for recent issues of the Communications of the ACM, IEEE Computer Magazine, IEEE Pervasive Computing, and IEEE Security & Privacy. These professional journals frequently publish highly readable, research-based articles about the cybersecurity implications of new and emerging technologies in the context of critical infrastructure sectors.

Next, brainstorm keywords that you can use to find additional articles, papers, and other scholarly publications (“sources’) which discuss and/or evaluate your selected emerging application of technology in the context of your chosen critical infrastructure.

Allowable source types are: (a) professional journals, (b) conference proceedings, (c) dissertations or theses, and (d) technical magazines (published by either the ACM or IEEE). Each of your selected sources must have a reference list containing at least 3 references for authoritative papers. (See http://sites.umuc.edu/library/libhow/scholarlyjournals.cfm)

Your selected sources must come from publications indexed in one or more of the following library databases:

Since the point of this search is to find information about emerging applications of technology for a critical infrastructure, your sources must have a publication date of 2015 or later (2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020). For papers indexed in Science Direct, you may also use papers that are marked “In Press.”

To complete this part of the assignment, you may need to review 15 – 20 sources (search results) in order to find 10 papers or articles that are usable for this assignment. The sources you choose must provide technical information about your selected technology (see selection requirements for each paper).

Create Your Bibliography (List of Sources)

Choose the 10 best sources from your searches for articles, papers, and dissertations. Focus on the ones that give details about your technology and how it can be used in an emerging application of technology. Next, write the reference list entry (APA, MLA, or another appropriate professional citation style) for each source. Alphabetize your list of reference list entries. After you have the correctly ordered list, number your entries from 1 to 10. Note: different reference entry formats are used for different types of sources. Review the UMUC Library’s “Get Help > Citing and Writing for samples and explanations of the formatting rules. If you are using APA format, your list should look something like the following.

  1. (date). Article title. Publication name, vol(issue), #-#.
  2. (date). Paper title. Published in the Proceedings of conference-name, pp. #-#.
  3. Author …

Write Your Annotations

In an annotated bibliography, the annotation is a paragraph or two placed under the reference list entry for each source. For this assignment, the annotation should be a combination of factual information from the source and your evaluation (opinion) of that information. To accomplish this, you should read the abstract, introduction section, and closing sections for each article or paper. For dissertations, look over the Introduction and the Literature Review (usually Chapters 1 & 2). From this information, develop a one to three paragraph informative or descriptive summary of the source that includes: (a) a description of technology and its characteristics, (b) planned uses of the technology in the critical infrastructure, and (c) your thoughts and opinions as to how you could use this paper to justify selecting the technology for an Internal Research & Development study.

In each annotation, you should provide at least one specific example of a characteristic and/or application of the technology, e.g. an emerging technology, which impacts cybersecurity.

For example, for an annotation for an article about robots used to inspect dams and bridges, you could focus upon the need to secure the WiFi communications used to operate the device (“command and control” links). Improving the security of the WiFi transmissions would reduce the risk that attackers could take control of the robot or otherwise interfere with its operations.  This in turn will decrease the probability of loss of availability caused by a successful attack. Decreasing the probability of a negative event will decrease the risk associated with that event

Note: Remember that the security posture of a system or product is framed in terms of risk, threats, vulnerabilities, etc. Improvements to the security posture (positive security implications) will result in reduced risk, increased resistance to threats or attacks, and decreased vulnerability.  Negative impacts on the security posture will result in increased risk, decreased resistance to threats / attacks, and increased vulnerability (weakness).

As you write the annotations for each article / paper / dissertation, make sure that you include YOUR thoughts and ideas about the security implications of this technology. Use standard terminology per the resources in this course and in your previous coursework.

As you brainstorm the security implications of this technology (if these are not specifically discussed by your source), you should consider use of the technology to improve cybersecurity. Then consider applications or uses which will negatively impact the security posture of the identified critical infrastructure. It is very important that you consider BOTH SIDES OF THIS ISSUE.

Putting It All Together

  1. Consult the grading rubric for specific content and formatting requirements for this assignment.
  2. Your 5-8 page annotated bibliography should be professional in appearance with consistent use of fonts, font sizes, margins, etc. You should use headings and page breaks to organize your paper.
  3. Your paper should use standard terms and definitions for cybersecurity. See Course Content > Cybersecurity Concepts Review for recommended resources.
  4. The CSIA program recommends that you follow standard APA formatting since this will give you a document that meets the “professional appearance” requirements. APA formatting guidelines and examples are found under Course Resources > APA Resources. An APA template file (MS Word format) has also been provided for your use CSIA_Basic_Paper_Template(APA_6ed,DEC2018).docx.
  5. You must include a cover page with the assignment title, your name, and the due date. Your reference list must be on a separate page at the end of your file. These pages do not count towards the assignment’s page count.
  6. You are expected to write grammatically correct English in every assignment that you submit for grading. Do not turn in any work without (a) using spell check, (b) using grammar check, (c) verifying that your punctuation is correct and (d) reviewing your work for correct word usage and correctly structured sentences and paragraphs.
  7. You are expected to credit your sources using in-text citations and reference list entries. Both your citations and your reference list entries must follow a consistent citation style (APA, MLA, etc.).

 

Do you have passwords that can be cracked in your password file? Why? Why not?

Turn-In Requirements:
Lab reports will be 5 to 8 pages in length (single-spaced in font size 12). The title page does not count as one of the pages for the report. The bibliography will not count as one of the page requirements. Appendices will not count as pages for the report. All references will be properly cited throughout the report.

2) Download the SAM and SHADOW files to crack.
3) The recommended environment is Kali VM
4) Crack the Shadow file using John the Ripper (JTR) or Johnny.
5) Crack the SAM file using ophcrack (or SamInside).
6) Experiment with online hash cracking site Crack Station to see if you can produce similar results.
7) Next, find your computer’s password file
a. What is the filename?
b. Where is it located?
c. Can you copy it? Why? Why not?
d. Do you have passwords that can be cracked in your password file? Why? Why not?
e. How can you crack the passwords in your password file?
8) Provide a 5- to 8-page lab report, which must include:
a. A discussion about the password cracker programs you used and any issues you had running the software
b. The cracked passwords and a discussion as to why each individually may not have been a good password
c. Answers to the questions in Step 7.
d. A discussion on what makes a good password policy, an assessment of the policy enforced in your work or school environment, and how passwords are related to identity access management systems

Importance for research, practice and education – is the scientific value and contribution of the framework evident?

A conceptual framework for educational design at modular level to promote transfer of learning

Yvonne Botma,G.H. Van Rensburg,I.M. Coetzee &T. Heyns

Pages 499-509 | Published online: 02 Dec 2013

In this articleClose

Abstract

Students bridge the theory–practice gap when they apply in practice what they have learned in class. A conceptual framework was developed that can serve as foundation to design for learning transfer at modular level. The framework is based on an adopted and adapted systemic model of transfer of learning, existing learning theories, constructive alignment and the elements of effective learning opportunities. A convergent consensus-seeking process, which is typical of a qualitative approach, was used for expert review. The final conceptual framework consists of two principles: establishing a community of learning and the primacy of a learning outcome. The four steps entail the following: (1) activation of existing knowledge; (2) engaging with new information; (3) demonstrating competence; and (4) application in the real world. It is envisaged that by applying the framework educators in health care will design for transfer of learning, resulting in quality of care and optimal patient outcomes.

Keywords: conceptual frameworkmodular designtheory–practice gaptransfer of learning

Introduction

The unifying aim of all educators in health care is to enable students to render quality health care and to apply what they have learned in the classroom and simulation laboratories to real-world situations (Lauder, Sharkey, & Booth, 2004). This process of application in the real world is known as ‘transfer of learning’ or ‘theory–practice integration’. Holton, Bates, Bookter, and Yamkovenko (2007) state that transfer of learning is the degree to which students apply to their jobs the knowledge, skills, behaviours and attitudes they have gained in training. Transfer of learning is demonstrated by a competent student. Goudreau et al. (2009) summarise competency as follows ‘… thus allows one to deal with different situations by drawing on concepts, knowledge, information, procedures, and methods. It incorporates many elements, mobilises knowledge, and strategically marshals capabilities in accordance with the specific nature of the situation’ (p. 3). Facilitation of problem solving, reflection, decision-making, critical reasoning and relevant other skills is necessary to give students the opportunities to become (Jerlock, Falk, & Severinsson, 2003). However, transfer of learning does not always occur. Many organisations have found that about 10–20% of training is ever applied in the real world (Ford, 2009; Kirwan & Birchall, 2006). Failure to transfer learning occurs for several reasons, and these may be grouped as factors within the student, design of the learning sessions, and organisational climate or workplace environment. The relationship of these factors is illustrated in Figure 1. Student characteristics, educational design and workplace culture influence students’ motivation to learn and to transfer learning and, in this way, performance in the clinical environment.

Figure 1. Systemic model of transfer of learning, adopted and adapted from Donovan and Darcy (2011).

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In order to promote transfer of learning, the educator must consider these factors when designing at modular level. For many educators, it becomes a daunting task, and they do not know where to start. It is the purpose of this article, therefore, to provide the conceptual framework that could serve as the foundation to design module themes in such a manner that it will promote transfer of learning.

Methodology

Developing conceptual frameworks involves identifying specific concepts, defining these concepts and then linking, integrating and aligning these to form a framework (Brink, Van Der Walt, & Van Rensburg, 2006; Rycroft-Malone & Bucknall, 2010). Initially, the first author of this article developed a conceptual framework of how to seamlessly incorporate simulation as a teaching and learning technique because the higher education institution she is affiliated with acquired authentic learning spaces with a number of human simulators.

Conceptual frameworks can be abstract, broad or skeletal in order to provide tapered information on a specific theme (Rycroft-Malone & Bucknall, 2010, p. 27). An in-depth literature review was conducted with regard to learning theories, competence, educational design and simulation. The literature review was later extended to include transfer of learning and/or learning and the theory–practice gap. In other words, the focus of the initial conceptual framework was changed from simulation to transfer of learning, because simulation is but one technique to promote transfer of learning. This framework provides a frame of reference to organise the thinking, problem solving and application needed in the clinical and non-clinical educational modules or themes.

The efficiency and usefulness of the conceptual framework is to assist and guide educators to describe the principles of a particular field to enhance the transfer of learning in a context. The use of the conceptual framework is set out in a systematic manner, which leads to the potential to explore and investigate the transfer of learning in different contexts.

Influential theories

Learning theories have reshaped themselves from behaviourism to information processing to constructivism. Recognising that context and culture influence memory and cognition forced researchers to explain personal meaning and the nature of reality and its representations. Consequently, social and radical constructivism developed with the following four principles:

Learning is an active process according to which learners construct their own knowledge;
Cognition is an adaptive process;
Meaning making is a subjective process and does not render an accurate representation of reality; and
Social, cultural, language and biological/neurological processes influence knowing (Yilmaz, 2008).

Educators usually have an eclectic approach to learning theories because they seldom support only one theory but consider instead what each has to offer. Therefore, Piaget’s view of learning, Vygotsky’s theory of interactional learning and Ausubel’s concept of meaningful learning may all be considered relevant by an educator. Cognitive science and cognitive psychology confirm that the process of constructing knowledge is dependent on existing knowledge, the context or situation, and internalisation of information in an organised cognitive structure (Bruce, Klopper, & Mellish, 2011). This constructivistic approach interrelates well with Kolb’s experiential learning theory, which postulates that knowledge is created from understanding to transforming experience (Kolb, Boyatzis, & Mainemelis, 2000). Kolb’s model postulates that observations and reflections occur upon concrete experiences. These reflections are internalised and abstract concepts are formed with associated possible consequences of action. The possible associated consequences can be actively tested for validity and inform future actions in similar situations (Kolb et al., 2000). On the basis of these viewpoints of learning, it is clear that the focus of learning outcomes has shifted from content to competence (Braband, 2008; Brandon & All, 2010).

With the constructivist approach, the educator becomes a facilitator of learning. For this reason, the responsibility of the educator–facilitator is to create learning opportunities for students to process new information and link it to existing mental frameworks through individual or social activity. However, prior knowledge needs to be retrieved before the student is able to link the new knowledge to it. Through this process, the new information is comprehended, and meaning making occurs or knowledge is constructed.

Learning opportunities are created within a complex system that consists of the educator, student, teaching context, teaching and learning activities, outcomes and student assessment tasks (Biggs, 1996) and should take the clinical environment into consideration. The starting point for creating learning opportunities is to clarify the learning outcome or competence (Biggs, 1996) that the professional person must demonstrate. Kouwenhoven defines competence as the capacity to demonstrate up to a predetermined standard the key occupational tasks that characterise a profession (Kouwenhoven, 2010). According to Braband (2008), students are competent when they have the capacity to apply their knowledge and skills with an appropriate attitude in various environments and circumstances. In other words, when foundational knowledge (content), procedural knowledge (how to do) and conditional knowledge (when to do) become functional knowledge (Biggs, 1996).

The elements of learning opportunities that promote competence are activation of existing knowledge to serve as a foundation for new knowledge; application of knowledge in real-world settings; active engagement of students in real-time and real-world situations; practicing of assessment, critical thinking, communication and leadership skills through collaborative learning processes; multiple authentic formative assessments to ensure mastery of the complete competence; and objective assessment measures that are clearly aligned with expected competencies (Carraccio, Wolfsthal, Englander, Ferentz, & Martin, 2002; Merrill, 2002). It is the responsibility of the educator to ensure that all teaching and learning activities are aligned with the outcome, reality and assessment tasks whilst it is students’ responsibility to actively engage with the learning material in order to internalise the theory and skills and in this way construct new knowledge (Reaburn, Muldoon, & Bookallil, 2009).

Development, evaluation and refinement of conceptual framework

From an extensive literature review, a conceptual framework was drafted by the first author, who is a member of a community of practice with a focus on scholarship of teaching and learning. This first author of this article presented the initial conceptual framework and supporting literature exploration to the rest of the team for a purposive review. In an attempt to refine and finalise the conceptual framework, a process of expert review was utilised. The community of practice consists of educators in health care that have experience in: personal research, supervising postgraduate students, developing guidelines and being active practitioners who facilitate learning.

The purpose of the critical review was to assess whether the framework could be accepted as it was described; found acceptable but with recommendations for change or improvement; or found not to be acceptable at all. The group entered into a process of expert evaluation by critiquing the conceptual framework based on criteria set by Tastle, Wierman, and Dundum (2005). These criteria entailed:

Clarity, simplicity and consistency – are constructs concrete and precise with clear descriptions?
Appropriateness, relevance and comprehensiveness – are all aspects of transfer of learning addressed?
Applicability, practicality and usability – are there potential barriers in terms of implementation- and cost implications?
Adaptability and transferability – are constructs transferable to various contexts and circumstances?
Credibility – is the framework based on an extensive and critical literature review?
Importance for research, practice and education – is the scientific value and contribution of the framework evident?
Trustworthiness/validity – has a correct interpretation of the available evidence been drawn up to support the implementation of the framework?

To facilitate a well-informed review, a process was followed that involved reading, re-reading and internalising the initial framework and supportive literature, followed by academic debate. The criteria listed immediately above were kept in mind. Agreement and consensus building are complex processes that require a thorough understanding of what is to be reviewed or assessed. The review was approached in a qualitative manner through a convergent process. Convergent processes include consensus formation regarding topics or aspects of topics that need to be addressed, their significance and the most effective means to address them. Tastle et al. (2005) describe consensus as a function of shared team feelings towards an issue. Although these authors suggest a rating scale to capture these feelings [views] and to measure the extent to which a person agrees or disagrees with the issues put forward, the principle of consensus formation could also be applied to a qualitative approach to the review process.

The review discussions were based on an understanding of convergence amongst the members as experts and focused on the key constructs of a well-structured conceptual framework. These constructs were regarded as clear, appropriate, applicable, adaptable, practical and credible and have value as proposed by Polit and Beck (2008). Polit and Beck’s (2008) criteria are in accordance with those of Tastle et al. (2005) that were initially used for review. The review process enabled the members of the community of practice to refine and finalise the conceptual framework. Changes were made to the extent of the framework so as not to limit it to the clinical environment. Focus was placed more on principles of transfer of learning rather than specific activities. It was agreed that these changes would make the framework more useful in a broader context of teaching and learning.

Conceptual framework

On the basis of the principles of constructivism as a learning theory, constructive alignment and the elements of effective learning opportunities, a conceptual framework was developed to guide educators on how to design themes for modules that would promote transfer of learning.

The conceptual framework consists of four steps – the activation of existing knowledge, engagement with new information, demonstration of competence and application in real-world practice. (Refer to inner circle in Figure 2). Criteria for successful implementation can be identified for each of these steps. (Refer to the four squares in Figure 2). These four steps or phases are dependent on two principles – the primacy of learning outcomes and the demand that learning takes place within a community of learning. The four steps have as their objective the transfer of learning.

Figure 2. Conceptual framework for educational design at modular level to promote transfer of learning.

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Principles

Establish a community of learning

Fellow students, facilitator(s) and experts in the field constitute a community of learning that assists in developing students’ communication, critical thinking skills and the ability to elaborate and defend their views to others of different opinions (McLoughlin, 2001). Interaction amongst members of the learning community may occur face to face or through the use of electronic media (Kala, Isaramalai, & Pohthong, 2010) and helps to build cognitive bridges (Brandon & All, 2010). The quality and quantity of engagement and interaction are amongst other factors dependent on the degree of the presence of the facilitator (Reaburn et al., 2009).

The primacy of learning outcomes

Researchers in cognitive psychology have shown that deep learning occurs when learners solve authentic problems, in such a way realising the relevance of what they have learned (Merrill, 2002). For this reason, the educator should identify what a person at entry level into a profession should be able to do. Once that has been identified, it becomes the completion of the following stem sentence: ‘On completion of this module/theme the student will be able to …’.

Four steps

Step 1: activate existing knowledge

As stated earlier, knowledge construction occurs when new information is integrated into existing mental schemas. Clark and Harrelson (2002) state that instructional events that activate relevant prior knowledge in long-term memory and stimulate internalisation in working memory supports knowledge construction. However, in practice, many educators immediately start with new learning material without identifying the students existing knowledge. It is therefore essential to determine whether the students have had any relevant experience and what that experience entailed. Information-orientated pretests are unproductive in activating prior experience (Merrill, 2002). In order to incorporate new information, existing schemas need to be recalled and modified. Existing knowledge and its related schema is often activated through story telling of lived experiences and guided reflection (Biggs, 1996). Doolittle and Camp (1999) state that it may be necessary to deconstruct an existing ‘incorrect’ concept and then to (re)construct the appropriate concept before continuing with the desired teaching and learning activities (Doolittle & Camp, 1999). This description fits with Mezirow’s transformative learning as cited by Clapper (2010, p. e10); namely, that ‘it is a process of using a prior interpretation to construe a new or revised interpretation of one’s experience in order to guide future action’ (Clapper, 2010). The motivation to learn increases when students realise the relevance of the theoretical content.

Step 2: engage with new information

Learning is enhanced when the learning activities are aligned with the outcome or expected competence (Biggs, 1996). The engagement phase is student centred and outcome focussed because deep learning is promoted when students are actively engaged with the aim of making sense of the information by seeking integration between content and tasks (Pascoe & Singh, 2008; Rust, 2002; Sefton, 2006). Students demonstrate engagement when they discuss information, think about it, or use and apply the information to solve real-life problems or challenges. Sefton (2006) recommends that students develop these skills progressively throughout the educational programme. Furthermore, students should know their learning style and preferred learning techniques to become life-long learners (Biggs, 1996; Boud & Falchikov, 2006; Fink, 2003; Pascoe & Singh, 2008).

Content and skills should be pared down to what is essential to meet the learning outcome (Brandon & All, 2010; Pascoe & Singh, 2008). Forbes and Hickey (2009) advise that educators should ask themselves whether the information will be used in the majority of situations in the specified context. When planning engaging learning activities, the facilitator should take into consideration that learning occurs best when more than one sense is involved – for example, when students see and hear (Clark & Harrelson, 2002). Engagement should occur in all domains of learning and students should be offered opportunities to observe and practice how to perform certain skills correctly, because personal experiences are necessary for enhanced functioning within one’s professional environment (Doolittle & Camp, 1999). The emphasis during the engagement phase is on mastering content, becoming proficient in certain tasks and being actively engaged in the process of learning through various student-centred teaching methods. After the engagement phase, students should be given the opportunity to demonstrate what they have learned.

Step 3: demonstrate competence

All learners within a professional programme progress from a novice to competent practitioner (Benner, Sutphen, Leonard, & Day, 2010). Novices are characterised by strict adherence to rules or plans with little situational perception and little ability to make discretionary judgments. At this level, students need much guidance and support. At a competent level, students have a broader understanding of the situation and can make more intuitive decisions (Roberts, Gustavs, & Mack, 2012). Expertise is acquired through extensive involvement in activities that are specifically designed to improve performance (Ward, Hodges, Starkes, & Williams, 2007). Educators should, however, recognise that this involvement is still part of the learning cycle and students also learn through their mistakes (Allan, Smith, & O’Driscoll, 2011). When students are not skilled in what they need to do the specific incompetency should be identified and strategies implemented that give the student the opportunity to deliberately practice to become competent in those identifies areas (Clapper & Kardong-Edgren, 2012).

Step 4: apply in real world

Health care systems are workforce- and service orientated rather than learning oriented (Allan et al., 2011). Therefore, the workplace climate or organisational culture influences learning and is not always conducive to learning. Maben, Latter, and Clark (2006) describe the pressures and constraints of the system and professionals as organisational and professional sabotage. The sabotage may be due to time pressure, role constraints, staff shortage and poor skills mix, work overload, task orientation and high patient turnover. It is therefore essential to plan during the educational design phase how to support students in the workplace in order to enhance transfer of learning, thus applying it in the real world.

Discussion

Following the principles and the steps in this conceptual framework may enable students to apply what they have learned independently in different contexts over an extended period of time. In other words, the students will demonstrate their functional knowledge when they know when and how to use the content and skills that they have learned appropriately.

Known learning theories have been used to underpin the framework that could assist educators to design at modular level in order to enhance transfer of learning or bridge the well-described theory–practice gap (Allan, 2011; Maben et al., 2006). Although the initial conceptual framework was widely used in the institution where the first author works, the refined conceptual framework needs to be applied outside that institution in clinical and non-clinical contexts. The rigour of the review process was enhanced by the fact that none of the experts are associated with the higher education institution of the first author. Furthermore, an independent skilled moderator facilitated the review process and thus reduced bias.

It is envisaged that by applying the framework, educators in health care will design for transfer of learning, resulting in quality of care and optimal patient outcomes. Furthermore, the principles and steps of the framework may culminate in a standardised educational design template used during the design process. This conceptual framework should become an integral part of curriculum development and could be applied in any professional educational context.

It is recommended that the conceptual framework be evaluated once it has been implemented to determine whether transfer of learning occurred. Strategies to strengthen educators and clinical facilitators in applying the principles underlying the framework will become key to the value and contribution of this framework. The conceptual framework can be utilised to guide and contribute to the methodological approach for future research in the transfer of knowledge.

Conclusion

In order to address the challenge that educators face in designing for transfer of learning the conceptual framework was developed that could serve as the foundation to educational design. This framework provides principles and steps that could assist in developing modular themes in such a manner that students are able to apply in practice what they have learned in theory. Existing mental schemas are recalled in preparation for the creation of new knowledge. Competence and expertise are developed within a community of learning during the engagement phase during which students are actively involved with learning activities that are well designed and aligned with the outcome and their learning needs. Students are afforded the opportunity to demonstrate their competence through various techniques of which simulation is an example. The framework further emphasises that learning in the workplace is part of the educational design and educators must consider how to support students in the workplace. Student support in the workplace can no longer be relegated to the service provider. The approach described in this article could assist educators in health care in applying overlapping principles of learning theories.

The principality of sound outcomes and a community of learning is emphasised in this conceptual framework. A health care professional needs to demonstrate functional knowledge, which is the attainment of a sound learning outcome. As a result, it is envisaged that successful application of this framework could cultivate a culture of lifelong learning that is a desired outcome for students studying for a professional degree.

Notes on contributors

Yvonne Botma is an associate professor with an interest in educational strategies to enhance theory–practice integration. She teaches research methodology and trains clinical preceptors to support nursing students in applying their classroom knowledge in practice.

Gisela H. Van Rensburg is a professor in health studies and teaches research methodology at an open distance learning university. Her research focus is innovative student support strategies, including support of postgraduate students through group facilitation and various reflective practices.

Isabel Coetzee is a critical care nurse educator who promotes practice development in critical care units in public and private hospitals. She facilitates postgraduate students in critical care nursing to become competent nurse clinicians.

Tanya Heyns is keen on practice development, especially in emergency care rooms and critical care units as she teaches emergency care to postgraduate nursing students. She is a firm believer of appreciation and the strength of positive reinforcement.

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What is the P/E ratio of this company? How does the P/E ratio compare to other companies in this industry?

For your second SLP assignment, continue to do research on the company you chose to write about for your Module 1 SLP. This time you will be doing research about the valuation of the company to try to determine if its stock price is overvalued or undervalued. You can use Google Finance, Yahoo Finance, or similar Web pages to find the financial information about this company.
Write a 2- to 3-page paper with the following items:
1. What is the P/E ratio of this company? How does the P/E ratio compare to other companies in this industry? Based on the P/E ratio, do you think the company is overvalued or undervalued?
2. Find the company’s balance sheet. Calculate the book value of each share. This can be done by taking the total assets and subtracting total liabilities. Then divide the number you get by the total number of outstanding shares. Is the number you get higher or lower than the current price of the share? Based on what you’ve found, would you say the stock is overvalued or undervalued?
3. Finally, do a search on what different analysts have to say about your company. Do they generally recommend buying the stock or selling the stock? What reasons to they give for their assessment? Find at least three analyst reports about this company.
NOTE: Module 1 SLP paper is attached for reference to ensure the same company is used.

What is the strategic and operational issue touched upon and how did they materialize?

You will find the question and instructions in the file uploaded.
when looking at 4 articles make sure they are all linked to a particular issue. Also please make sure the first statement in the review makes it clear what aspect you are looking at and how the four articles will address that.
preferably for the articles to be based under crisis management
on the second page of the file uploaded you will find a list of topics you can choose from. the paper can be structured as follows. A short overview and a 200-250 words per artice. For example, sub topic article 1, article 2 etc
you can find articles that may help under this link https://www.theisrm.org/en/documents-archive . Please note you can only access this library for free before 30th November.
Also, you mind find these points helpful
1. What is the strategic and operational issue touched upon and how did they materialize?
2. How did the organizations deal with this issue or what risk management practices was suggested by the article to deal with the issue?
3. What could they have done better or improved?
Lastly, please attach the articles or links at the end of the paper. for example, a screenshot of the article if it’s not too long.

How do we keep out fighting force at acceptable levels to avoid drastic personnel surplus and deficiencies all while working within the national debt limit U.S Congress is trying to manage?

Topic Specified: Navy Recruiting and Retention

  • Main Point I

The Navy like most organizations has fluctuations in their manning. At times of war, standards are sometimes lowered such as ASVAB score requirements, age waivers, and physical fitness standards changes. From the retention aspect, bonuses are offered for under manned Navy occupations that deal with combat and maintenance. The Navy needs more aviation personnel, submariners and other sea going rates to be filled.

When we are in a drawdown, the budget usually changes, and the number of bonuses given are in decline, promotion quotas slowly dwindle down, and manning is loss due to a change in the global conflicts. How do we keep out fighting force at acceptable levels to avoid drastic personnel surplus and deficiencies all while working within the national debt limit U.S Congress is trying to manage?

Subpoint ACurrent recruiting effort (source cited): Rosendale, J. A., & Leidman, M. B. (2015). Locked-in on Our Youth: An Inquiry into American Military Recruiting Media (1st ed., Vol. 4). Retrieved from http://www.aijssnet.com/journals/Vol_4_No_1_February_2015/4.pdf

Subpoint B – Retaining our current workforce? (source cited): Eskreis-Winkler, L., Shulman, E., Beal, S., & Duckworth, A. (2014). The grit effect: Predicting retention in the military, the workplace, school and marriage. Frontiers in Psychology, 5, 36.

  • Main Point II

Bringing aboard recruits that are desirable is essential in workforce balancing. It will come done to select the most qualified and placing them in the field they may thrive in the most. The issue with job placement comes with what the recruit expects the job is like versus the reality of the job itself.

Subpoint A – Testing and selecting standards (source cited):

Eakman, A. (2014). A Prospective Longitudinal Study Testing Relationships between Meaningful Activities, Basic Psychological Needs Fulfillment, and Meaning in Life. OTJR: Occupation, Participation and Health, 34(2), 93-105.

Cassenti, D., Rice, V., & Rose, P. (2015). The Relationship between U.S. Military Aptitude Testing and Academic Performance during Army Combat Medic Training (Vol. 59). Los Angeles, CA: SAGE Publications.

Subpoint B – Job satisfaction and morale (source cited):

Bysted, R. (2013). Innovative employee behavior. European Journal of Innovation Management, 16(3), 268-284.

  • Main Point III

The plan to keep the personnel we have and bring on new talent to keep vigor in the workforce. Ultimately, even with the advancement in technology, there is a need for human involvement in day to day naval operations. There are plans being researched and put evaluated to perpetuate the vigor of the naval workforce.

Subpoint A – Implemented more programs to promote mental and physical health (source cited): Woods, M. (2017). 4 Ways HRIS Can Improve Employee Engagement: Keeping employees happy is a top-level priority. Core HR, HRIS and Payroll Excellence Essentials, Core HR, HRIS and Payroll Excellence Essentials, Mar 2017.

Palm, R. (2016). Thinking Outside The Network: How benefits managers can save money while keeping employees happy. Employee Benefits and Wellness Excellence Essentials, Employee Benefits and Wellness Excellence Essentials, Mar 2016.

Conclusion

In conclusion, implementing some of these plans should show an increase in recruitment to meet the Department of Defense fiscal year goals and also retain valuable assets within the organization to sustain the naval workforce.

 

The effects caused by Santander introducing technology to traditional banking.

Hello, below are my aims! I have attached a file which goes into further detail of what is expected of this literature review and the guidelines. Please follow this as strictly as possible! Thank you for your efforts in advance!!
1. Investigate what is the new technology that has been recently implemented in Santander (across all departments) and how this compares to traditional banking.
(including profits and losses of what these technologies have caused Santander)
2. To examine the effects of these technologies on Santander’s customers and to have a better understanding of what the customer’s connotations/opinions with e-banking etc are. (to be included: does the older generation have a more negative opinion and why that could be?, how many of Santander’s customers use online banking and other technologies within Santander)
3. To research the effects of e-banking within the labour market on a whole e.g how many jobs will be lost (and have been lost already) and gather the worries employees have about these recent technologies.
I cannot have any plagiarism whatsoever it must be 100% original content, please!
References must only be academic journals, books, consultancy reports and minimal online sources expect from Santander’s annual, strategic report etc which must be included.

Many Thanks

Does it relate to and build on other research in the same field?

Please strictly follow the guidelines below, under any circumstance the literature review must be 100% original and can not contain any plagiarism.

  1. What is the marking criteria :

Literature Review

  1. i) Is the literature relevant to the topic?
  2. ii) Does it relate to and build on other research in the same field?

iii)        Is the literature review critical?

  1. iv) Does it inform the hypotheses/research questions?
  2. v) If appropriate, is the framework of analysis clearly specified

 

  1. Please choose the best approach for the literature review, ensuring it flows throughout the 4000 words. I am using a mix method approach when I collect my primary data in the sense of methodology, I am conducting surveys and focus groups at the bank itself.

 

  1. The structure is extremely important it should have a thematic structure focusing on key areas.

 

  1. Finally a clear argument for both for and against must be demonstrated including recurring themes. It should also establish ‘my’ position in the argument for the project and organisation of the review

 

  • Define trends: gaps in research, foundational research and theory.

 

 

Sources to be used

The sources must be academic and should only include no more than 5 sources from the Santander websites and the rest of them from academic journals, consultancy reports, strategic reports.

Referencing – should be done solely in Havard style.

 

Many thanks once again, I’m certain you will do a marvellous job and I look forward to working with you in the near future.

 

 

 

How much will a trade war launched by America’s president, Donald Trump, exacerbate it? What will global commerce look like in the aftermath?

The Economist January 26th 2019 23
1
LARGE AND sustained increases in the
cross-border flow of goods, money,
ideas and people have been the most important
factor in world affairs for the past
three decades. They have reshaped relations
between states both large and small,
and have increasingly come to affect internal
politics, too. From iPhones to France’s
gilets jaunes, globalisation and its discontents
have remade the world.
Recently, though, the character and
tempo of globalisation have changed. The
pace of economic integration around the
world has slowed by many—though not
all—measures. “Slowbalisation”, a term
used since 2015 by Adjiedj Bakas, a Dutch
trend-watcher, describes the reaction
against globalisation. How severe will it
become? How much will a trade war
launched by America’s president, Donald
Trump, exacerbate it? What will global
commerce look like in the aftermath?
There have been periods of more and
less globalisation throughout history. Today’s
era sprang from America’s sponsorship
of a new world order in 1945, which allowed
cross-border flows of goods and
capital to recover after years of war and
chaos. After 1990 this bout of globalisation
went into warp speed as China rebounded,
India and Russia abandoned autarky and
the European single market came into its
own. Containerising freight sent shipping
costs plummeting. America signed nafta,
helped create the World Trade Organisation
and supported global tariff cuts. Financial
liberalisation freed capital to roam
the world in search of risk and reward.
Harder blew the trade winds
World trade rocketed as a result, from 39%
of gdp in 1990 to 58% last year. International
assets and liabilities rose too, from 128%
to 401% of gdp, as did the stock of migrants,
from 2.9% to 3.3% of the world’s
population. On the first two of those measures
the world is far more integrated than
in 1914, the peak of the previous age of globalisation.
Nonetheless, parts of the world
remain poorly integrated into the global
economy. About 1bn people live in countries
where trade is less than a quarter of
gdp. World trade can be split into tens of
thousands of separate potential corridors
between pairs of countries: America and
China, say, or Gabon and Denmark. In a
quarter of those corridors there was no recorded
commerce at all.
When did the slowdown begin? Consider
a dozen measures of global integration
(see chart 1 on next page). Eight are in retreat
or stagnating, of which seven lost
steam around 2008. Trade has fallen from
61% of world gdp in 2008 to 58% now. If
these figures exclude emerging markets (of
which China is one), it has been flat at
about 60%. The capacity of supply chains
that ship half-finished goods across borders
has shrunk. Intermediate imports
rose fast in the 20 years to 2008, but since
then have dropped from 19% of world gdp
to 17%. The march of multinational firms
has halted. Their share of global profits of
all listed firms has dropped from 33% in
2008 to 31%. Long-term cross-border investment
by all firms, known as foreign direct
investment (fdi), has tumbled from
3.5% of world gdp in 2007 to 1.3% in 2018.
As cross-border trade and companies
have stagnated relative to the economy, so
too has the intensity of financial links.
Cross-border bank loans have collapsed
from 60% of gdp in 2006 to about 36%. Excluding
rickety European banks, they have
been flat at 17%. Gross capital flows have
fallen from a peak of 7% in early 2007 to
1.5%. When globalisation boomed, emerging
economies found it easy to catch up
The global list
Globalisation has faltered and is now being reshaped
Briefing Slowbalisation
24 Briefing Slowbalisation The Economist January 26th 2019
2
1
with the rich world in terms of output per
person. Since 2008 the share of economies
converging in this way has fallen from 88%
to 50% (using purchasing-power parity).
A minority of yardsticks show rising integration.
Migration to the rich world has
risen slightly over the past decade. International
parcels and flights are growing fast.
The volume of data crossing borders has
risen by 64 times, according to McKinsey, a
consulting firm, not least thanks to billions
of fans of Luis Fonsi, a Puerto Rican
crooner with YouTube’s biggest-ever hit.
Braking point
There are several underlying causes of this
slowbalisation. After sharp declines in the
1970s and 1980s trading has stopped getting
cheaper. Tariffs and transport costs as a
share of the value of goods traded ceased to
fall about a decade ago. The financial crisis
in 2008-09 was a huge shock for banks.
After it, many became stingier about financing
trade. And straddling the world
has been less profitable than bosses hoped.
The rate of return on all multinational investment
dropped from an average of 10%
in 2005-07 to a puny 6% in 2017. Firms
found that local competitors were more capable
than expected and that large investments
and takeovers often flopped.
Deep forces are at work. Services are becoming
a larger share of global economic
activity and they are harder to trade than
goods. A Chinese lawyer is not qualified to
execute wills in Berlin and Texan dentists
cannot drill in Manila. Emerging economies
are getting better at making their own
inputs, allowing them to be self-reliant.
Factories in China, for example, can now
make most parts for an iPhone, with the exception
of advanced semiconductors.
Made in China used to mean assembling
foreign widgets in China; now it really does
mean making things there.
What might the natural trajectory of
globalisation have looked like had there
been no trade war? The trends in trade and
supply chains appear to suggest a phase of
saturation, as the pull of cheap labour and
multinational investment in physical assets
have become less important. If left to
their own devices, however, financial flows
such as bank loans might have picked up as
the shock of the financial crisis receded
and Asian financial institutions gained
more reach abroad.
Instead, the Trump administration has
charged in. Its signature policy has been a
barrage of tariffs, which cover a huge range
of goods, from tyres to edible offal. The revenue
America raised from tariffs, as a share
of the value of all imports, was 1.3% in 2015.
By October 2018, the latest month for which
data are available, it was 2.7%. If America
and China do not strike a deal and Mr
Trump acts on his threats, that will rise to
3.4% in April. The last time it was that high
was in 1978, although it is still far below the
level of over 50% seen in the 1930s.
Tariffs are only one part of a broad push
to tilt commerce in America’s favour. A tax
bill passed by Congress in December 2017
was designed to encourage firms to repatriate
cash held abroad. They have brought
back about $650bn so far. In August 2018
Congress also passed a law vetting foreign
investment, aimed at protecting American
technology companies.
America’s control of the dollar-based
payments system, the backbone of global
commerce, has been weaponised. zte, a
Chinese technology firm, was temporarily
banned from doing business with American
firms. The practical consequence was
to make it hard for it to use the global financial
system, with devastating results. Another
firm, Huawei, is being investigated
as a result of information from an American
monitor placed inside a global bank,
who raised a flag about the firm busting
sanctions. The punishment could be a ban
on doing business in America, which in effect
means a ban on using dollars globally.
The administration’s attacks on the
Federal Reserve have undermined confidence
that it will act as a lender of last resort
for foreign banks and central banks
that need dollars, as it did during the financial
crisis. The boss of an Asian central
bank says in private that it is time to prepare
for the post-American era. America
has abandoned climate treaties and undermined
bodies such as the wto and the global
postal authority.
On the counterattack
Other countries have reciprocated in kind
if not in degree. As well as raising tariffs of
its own, China used its antitrust apparatus
in July to block the acquisition of nxp, a
Dutch chip firm, by Qualcomm, an American
one. Both do business in China. It is
also pursuing an antitrust investigation
against a trio of foreign tech firms—Samsung,
Micron and sk Hynix—which its domestic
manufacturers complain charge
too much. Since November the French
state has taken an overt role in the row between
Renault and Nissan, having sat in
the back seat for years.
Most multinational firms spent 2018 insisting
to investors that this trade war did
not matter. This is odd, given how much effort
they spent over the previous 20 years
lobbying for globalisation. The Economist
Global stops and starts
Sources: IMF; UNCTAD; BIS; OECD; Bloomberg; IATA; UPU; McKinsey *Compared with US GDP per person on a PPP basis
Trade in goods and
services as % of GDP
1
50
55
60
65
2007 18
Intermediate imports
as % of GDP
14
16
18
20
2007 18
Multinational profits
as % of all listed
firms’ profits
20
25
30
35
40
2007 18
FDI flows
as % of GDP
0
1
2
3
4
2007 18
Stock of crossborder
bank loans
as % of GDP
30
40
50
60
2007 18
Share of countries
catching up*, %
40
60
80
100
2007 18
Gross capital flows
as % of GDP
0
2
4
6
2007 18
S&P 500 sales
abroad, % of total
30
40
50
60
2007 18
International parcel
volume, m
0
50
100
150
200
2007 17
Permanent migrants
to rich world, m
0
2
4
6
2007 17
Cross-border
bandwith
Terabits per second
0
200
400
600
800
2007 17
International air
travel, revenue
passenger km, bn
0
2
4
6
2007 17
The Economist January 26th 2019 Briefing Slowbalisation 25
2
1
has reviewed the investor calls in the second
half of 2018 of about 80 of the largest
American firms which have given guidance
about the impact of tariffs. The hit to total
profits was about $6bn, or 3%. Most firms
said they could pass on the costs to customers.
Many claimed their supply chains
were less extended than you might think,
with each region a self-contained silo.
This blasé attitude has begun to crumble
in the past eight weeks, as executives
factor in not just the mechanical impact of
tariffs but the broader consequences of the
trade war on investment and confidence,
not least in China. On December 18th Federal
Express, one of the world’s biggest logistics
firms, said that business was slowing.
Estimates for the firm’s profits have
dropped by a sixth since then. On January
2nd Apple said that trade tensions were
hurting its business in China, and five days
later Samsung gave a similar message.
Temporary manoeuvring by firms to get
round tariffs may have created a sugar high
that is now ending. Some firms have been
“front-running” tariffs by stockpiling inventories
within America. Reflecting this,
the price to ship a container from Shanghai
to Los Angeles soared in the second half of
2018, compared with the price to ship one
to Rotterdam. But this effect is unwinding
and prices to Los Angeles are falling again
as global export volumes slow.
America has had bouts of protectionism
before, as the historian Douglas Irwin
notes, only to return to an open posture.
Nonetheless investors and firms worry
that this time may be different. Uncle Sam
is less powerful than during the previous
bout of protectionism, which was aimed at
Japan. Its share of global gdp is roughly a
quarter, compared with a third in 1985. Fear
of trade and anger about China is bipartisan
and will outlive Mr Trump. And damage
has been done to American-led institutions,
including the dollar system. Firms
worry that the full-tilt globalisation seen
between 1990 and 2010 is no longer underwritten
by America and no longer commands
popular consent in the West.
Few quick fixes
Faced with this, some things are easy to fix.
The boss of one big multinational is planning
to end its practice of swapping board
seats with a Chinese firm, in order to avoid
political flak in America. Supply chains
take longer to adjust. Multinationals are
sniffing out how to shift production from
China. Kerry Logistics, a Hong Kong firm,
has said that trade tensions are boosting
activity in South-East Asia. Citigroup, a
bank, has seen a pickup in deal flows between
Asian countries such as South Korea
and India.
An exodus cannot happen overnight,
however. Vietnam is rolling out the red carpet
but its two big ports, Ho Chi Minh City
and Haiphong, each have only a sixth of the
capacity of Shanghai. Apple, which has a
big supply chain in China, is committed to
paying its vendors $42bn in 2019 and the
contracts cannot be cancelled. It relies on a
long tail of 30-odd barely profitable suppliers
and assemblers of components, which
it squeezes. If these firms were asked to
shift their factories from China they might
struggle to do so quickly—the cost could be
anywhere between $25bn and $90bn.
Over time, however, firms will apply a
higher cost of capital to long-term investments
in industries that are politically sensitive,
such as tech, and in countries that
have fraught trade relations. The legal certainty
created by nafta in 1994 and China’s
entry into the wto in 2001 boosted multinational
investment flows. The removal of
certainty will have the opposite effect.
Already, activity in the most politically
sensitive channels is tumbling. Investment
by Chinese multinationals into
America and Europe sank by 73% in 2018.
Overall global fdi fell by 20% in 2018, according
to unctad, a multilateral body.
Some of that reflects an accounting quirk
as American firms adjust to recent tax reforms.
Still, in the last few weeks of 2018,
one element of fdi, cross-border takeovers,
slipped compared with the past few
years. If you assume that the rate of tax repatriation
fades and that deal flows are
subdued, fdi this year might be a fifth lower
than in 2017.
These trends can be used as a crude indicator
of the long-run effect of a continuing
trade war. Assume that fdi does not
pick up, and also that the recent historical
relationship between the stock of fdi and
trade can be extrapolated. On this basis, exports
would fall from 28% of world gdp to
23% over a decade. That would be equivalent
to a third of the proportionate drop
seen between 1929 and 1946, the previous
crisis in globalisation.
Perhaps firms can adapt to slowbalisation,
shifting away from physical goods to
intangible ones. Trade in the 20th century
morphed three times, from boats laden
with metals, meat and wool, to ships full of
cars and transistor radios, to containers of
components that feed into supply chains.
Now the big opportunity is services. The
flow of ideas can pack an economic punch;
over 40% of the productivity growth in
emerging economies in 2004-14 came
from knowledge flows, reckons the imf.
Overall, it has been a dismal decade for
exports of services, which have stagnated
at about 6-7% of world gdp. But Richard
Baldwin, an economist, predicts a crossborder
“globotics revolution”, with remote
workers abroad becoming more embedded
in companies’ operations. Indian outsourcing
firms are shifting from running
functions, such as Western payroll systems,
to more creative projects, such as
configuring new Walmart supermarkets.
In November tcs, India’s biggest firm,
bought w12, a digital-design studio in London.
Cross-border e-commerce is growing,
too. Alibaba expects its Chinese customers
to spend at least $40bn abroad in 2023. Netflix
and Facebook together have over a billion
cross-border customers.
Services rendered
It is a seductive story. But the scale of this
electronic mesh can be overstated. Typical
American Facebook users have 70% of their
friends living within 200 miles and only
4% abroad. The cross-border revenue pool
is relatively small. In total the top 1,000
American digital, software and e-commerce
firms, including Amazon, Microsoft,
Facebook and Google, had international
sales equivalent to 1% of all global
exports in 2017. Facebook may have a billion
foreign users but in 2017 it had similar
sales abroad to Mondelez, a medium-sized
American biscuit-maker.
Technology services are especially vulnerable
to politics and protectionism, reflecting
concerns about fake news, taxdodging,
job losses, privacy and espionage.
Here, the dominant market shares of the
companies involved are a disadvantage,
making them easier to target and control.
America discourages Chinese tech firms
from operating at scale within its borders
and American companies like Facebook
and Twitter are not welcome in China.
This sort of behaviour is spreading.
Consider India, which Silicon Valley had
hoped was an open market where it could
build the same monopolistic positions it
has in the West. On December 26th India
passed rules that clobber Amazon and Walmart,
which dominate e-commerce there,
preventing them from owning inventory.
The objective is to protect local digital and
traditional retailers. Draft rules revealed in
26 Briefing Slowbalisation The Economist January 26th 2019
2 July would require internet firms to store
data exclusively in India. A third set of
rules went live in October, requiring financial
firms to store data locally, too.
Furthermore, trade in services might
bring the kind of job losses that led manufacturing
trade to become unpopular.
Imagine, for example, if India’s it services
firms, experts at marshalling skilled workers,
doubled in size. Assuming each Indian
worker replaced a foreign one, then 1.5m
jobs would be lost in the West. And even the
flow of raw ideas across borders could be
slowed. The White House has considered
restricting Chinese scientists’ access to research
programmes. America’s new investment-
vetting regime could hamper venture-
capital activity. Technology services
will not evade the backlash against globalisation,
and may make it worse.
As globalisation fades, the emerging
pattern of cross-border commerce is more
regional. This matches the trend of shorter
supply chains and fits the direction of geopolitics.
The picture is clearest in trade. The
share of foreign inputs that cross-border
supply chains source from within their
own region—measured using value added—
has risen since 2012 in Asia, Europe
and North America, according to the oecd,
a club of mostly rich countries (see chart 2).
The pattern changes
Multinational activity is becoming more
regional, too. A decade ago a third of the
fdi flowing into Asian countries came
from elsewhere in Asia. Now it is half. If
you put Asian firms into two buckets—Japanese
and other Asian firms—each made
more money selling things to the other
parts of Asia than to America in 2018. In Europe
around 60% of fdi has come from
within the region over the past decade.
Outside their home region, European
multinationals have tilted towards emerging
markets and away from America.
American firms’ exposure to foreign markets
of any kind has stagnated for a decade
as firms have made hay at home.
The legal and diplomatic framework for
trade and investment flows is becoming
more regional. The one trade deal Mr
Trump has struck is a new version of
nafta, known as usmca. On November
20th the eu announced a new regime for
screening foreign investment. China is
backing several regional initiatives, including
the Asian Infrastructure Investment
Bank and a trade deal known as rcep.
Tech governance is becoming more regional,
too. Europe now has its own rules for the
tech industry on data (known as gdpr), privacy,
antitrust and tax. China’s tech firms
have rising influence in Asia. No emerging
Asian country has banned Huawei, despite
Western firms’ security concerns. The likes
of Alibaba and Tencent are investing heavily
across South-East Asia.
Both Europe and China are trying to
make their financial system more powerful.
European countries plan to bring more
derivatives activity from London and Chicago
into the euro area after Brexit, and are
encouraging a wave of consolidation
among banks. China is opening its bond
market, which over time will make it the
centre of gravity for other Asian markets.
As China’s asset-management industry
gets bigger it will have more clout abroad.
Yet the shift to a regional system comes
with three big risks. One is political. Two of
the three zones lack political legitimacy.
The eu is unpopular among some in Europe.
Far worse is China, which few countries
in Asia trust entirely. Traditionally,
economic hegemons are consumer-centric
economies which create demand in other
places by buying lots of goods from abroad,
and which often run trade deficits as a result.
Yet both China and Germany are mercantilist
powers that run trade surpluses.
As a result there could be lots of tensions
over sovereignty and one-sided trade.
The second risk is to finance, which remains
global for now. The portfolio flows
sloshing around the world are run by money-
management firms that roam the globe.
The dollar is the world’s dominant currency,
and the decisions of the Fed and gyrations
of Wall Street influence interest rates
and the price of equities around the world.
When America was ascendant the patterns
of commerce and the financial system
were complementary. During a boom
healthy American demand lifted exports
everywhere even as American interest
rates pushed up the cost of capital. But now
the economic and financial cycles may
work against each other. Over time this will
lead other countries to switch away from
the dollar, but until then it creates a higher
risk of financial crises.
The final danger is that some countries
and firms will be caught in the middle, or
left behind. Think of Taiwan, which makes
semiconductors for both America and China,
or Apple, which relies on selling its devices
in China. Africa and South America
are not part of any of the big trading blocks
and lack a centre of gravity.
Many emerging economies now face
four headwinds, worries Arvind Subramanian,
an economist and former adviser to
India’s government: fading globalisation,
automation, weak education systems that
make it hard to exploit digitalisation fully,
and climate-change-induced stress in
farming industries. Far from making it easier
to mitigate the downsides of globalisation,
a regional world would struggle to
solve worldwide problems such as climate
change, cybercrime or tax avoidance.
Viewed in the very long run, over centuries,
the march of globalisation is inevitable,
barring an unforeseen catastrophe.
Technology advances, lowering the cost of
trade in every corner of the world, while the
human impulse to learn, copy and profit
from strangers is irrepressible. Yet there
can be long periods of slowbalisation,
when integration stagnates or declines.
The golden age of globalisation created
huge benefits but also costs and a political
backlash. The new pattern of commerce
that replaces it will be no less fraught with
opportunity and danger. 7
Chain reaction
Source: OECD *Measured by value added
Share of cross-border supply-chain foreign inputs*
that are from the same region, %
2
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
2005 07 09 11 13 15 16
Asia
European Union
North America
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