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Are the contemporary Olympics able to effectively promote it’s core values?

1M191020-0

Outline

Thesis: Although recently many people doubt whether the IOC is still capable of promoting its original mandate, I firmly believe that it is well able to upholdits core values of “A way of life based on the joy of effort, the educational value of good example, social responsibility and respect for universal fundamental ethical principles” since many people dream about becoming an athlete and goal to compete in the Olympics, because the Olympics allow a chance of growth and harmony where it is held, and considering that the majority of athletes who compete at the Olympics desire a fair and clean competition.

Main argument 1: Numerous people start the dream of becoming an athlete by virtue of watching impressive moments at the Olympic games.

  • There are countless numbers of well-known athletes who first started their dream watching the Olympics.
  • Because of the existence of the Olympics, young athletes can set a clear goal; to prove themselves at the Olympic games. (essay article #9) “As we look forward to celebrating the 30th anniversary of the 1984 Olympic Games in Los Angeles this summer, we’re proud that its legacy continues to support the next generation of young athletes,”(LA84 Foundation President, Executive member of the IOC, Anita L.DeFrantz)

Main argument 2: The Olympics allow a valuable chance of growth and harmony where the games are held.

  • People from all over the world stay in one city during the Olympic games. By having such diversity during the games, it is definitely clear that the host country will learn social responsibility and respect for universal fundamental ethical principles along with its citizens and visitors as well.
  • Korea is a great example which certainly benefited economically during the 88 Seoul Olympics.

Main argument 3: While some claim that the Olympics has already lost its purpose referring to the recent drug test results, the majority of athletes who compete at the Olympics desire a fair and clean game.

  • It is absurd to claim that the Olympics can no longer promote its original core values because a small number of participants who cheat. Still the majority of people play clean and prove themselves at the Olympic games.
  • The IOC is relentlessly producing methods that would provide a fair competition for all participants. As time passes by, the number of those who cheat will certainly be curbed. (Essay article #1)

What opportunities will you invest in?How would you asses the success of your investment?

Research essay guide

For your research essay, develop a hypothetical finance and investment strategy for a country. The country must be a developing (emerging) country.

You may do the project alone or in groups of up to four students. The essay must be double-spaced, in font “times new roman” size 12, and between 12 and 15 pages long, including the front pages and references.

You will deliver:

  • A one-pager research essay proposal by October 10. Post a copy of your research essay proposal on cuLearn and hand in a hard copy in the beginning of the class on October 10. The proposal should include the author(s), the country of choice, the selected option (see below), three paragraphs justifying your selections and your approach to write the strategy, and five references, excluding the references mentioned at the end of this guide. In particular, explain who your target audience is and what you are trying to convey. The one-pager research essay should be single-spaced (10% of your final grade).
  • A PowerPoint presentation of your research essay on either Session 12 or Session 13 (15% of your final grade).
  • Your research essay by December 5, 23:59. You must post it on cuLearn (45% of your final grade).

Select one of the options below. Each option represents a different perspective of financing development:

Opinion 1. Private direct investorDraft an investment strategy for a private direct investor in a developing country. The private investor could for example be a multinational corporation.

Answer the following questions in your investment strategy:

  • What opportunities will you invest in?
  • In which country (or countries) are these opportunities?
  • What obstacles do you anticipate and how will you overcome them?
  • How would you asses the success of your investment?
  • What risks should you consider?

 

How does architecture inform function and how people use the space?

Institutions are the way through which society organizes the chaos of existence into a manageable order. Institutions are cultural expressions and architecture can provide the frame that shapes our experience of the distinctions that define institutional activity and meaning.

Identify an Institution. select a building that embodies an institution such as religion, educational, government, law, military, nation-state, art – cinema, art collection, etc. You will need to visit this building several times over the course of this assignment. Visit the building and be mindful of your experience as you first approach, enter, and explore the building. Write your observations. Use your notes to write a summary of your first visit. Reflect on your experience paying particular attention to the sequence of spaces from outside to inside, when you have the sensation of arrival and settling into the building, how your eye is directed toward certain building elements or attributes, the sounds you hear, etc. In your summary remarks please begin with a definition of an institution as we have come to understand them in this class. [1 page]

Using photography, record how boundaries are defined and the different spatial types used by the designer to create a difference between the institutional space and the everyday. Describe how space is defined and shaped to achieve the desired impact. Be cognizant of the use of dichotomies to draw differences. Describe the generalized behaviors that are associated with the institution and how the space helps to shape these preferred behaviors of the inhabitants of the institution.

Analyze how architecture expresses the boundaries and the thresholds between the everyday and the institutional. Describe how the boundaries and thresholds in your selected building help to define and express the institution’s distinct use of space and time to give it meaning and identity. Use photographs to illustrate your observations and analysis. [3 pages]

 

For more details about institution, please read the Week 13 – 15.

For more details about spatial types, please see the file “spatial types.pdf”

Observations

Spatial

– Hierarchy
– Public/ Private – Open/Intimate

Material

– Function based on materiality – Leads circulation

Structure

– Columns
– Movable Partitions – Solid

Levels & Ceiling Heights

Approach/Departure

– Welcoming? Fortified? – Thresholds of security?

Spatial types?

– Object to void? Layered? Cellular enclosure?

How to materials change?

– Do materials define circulation, function, private/ public?

– Loud/Quiet, Bright/Dark, Welcoming/Impeding

Examples:

https://gimliheritage.ca/pdfs/Glossary%20of%20Architectural%20Terms.pdf

http://img.uoregon.edu/arh314/terminology/Terminology_all.html

https://www.archdaily.com/904019/national-kaohsiung-center-for-the-arts-mecanoo

PHOTOS!

– at least 3…but more are encourage

– if describing the space to a friend…do your photos support your description?

Writing

– Describe how space is defined (what are the architectural/ spatial moves?) – Dichotomies (mass/void, light/dark, sharp/gentle, etc)

– How do these design decisions designate institutional vs everyday day

– How do people behave within this institution?
– What architectural moves promote this behavior?

– Continue to edit research from Week 13 (writing & diagrams)

– Define institution
-What institution does this building represent? Multiple?

– History & Significance
– Why did YOU choose to study THIS building? – Google aerial with context
– Sketch Diagrams

– Look ahead to Final

– Describe thresholds/boundaries
– compile final document
– formatted, 4-6 pages, in-text photos, citations, diagrams, aerials

 

Goal

How does architecture inform function and how people use the space?

How is solid/void expressed within a particular institution?

What values shape this institution?

 

How could you use operant conditioning to change the less desirable behavior into the desired behavior?

Critical Reasoning Essay Prompts

Choose any one from the following essay prompts.

1) Neural Pathways
Choose any neural pathway you feel passionate about like the visual pathway, auditory pathway, olfactory pathway, etc., and describe how the pathway travels from the stimuli through the nervous system. Then, explain how the environment (experiences) may have an effect on how stimuli may be perceived. Example: If you were to choose the visual pathway and you were raised around snakes as pets, first describe the visual pathway from stimuli to occipital lobe, and how would a picture of a snake (the stimulus) travel from the occipital lobe to other parts of the brain like the limbic system (specific parts of the limbic system) to the cortex and how might your autonomic nervous system react.

2) Learning Process
Describe how learning is accomplished from stimuli to processing. Here you don’t have to be specific with the neural pathways if you choose not to, but you do have to identify the brain components responsible for learning. What I am looking for is that you understand the different components, modalities, and how to optimize your time to learn material presented during your academic career.

3) Operant Conditioning and Modifying a Behavior
Drawing on personal experience, choose a person whose behavior you want to change. You may select one of your own behaviors for this question. How could you use operant conditioning to change the less desirable behavior into the desired behavior?
In a multi-paragraph essay describe your plans to condition the new behavior. Be sure to mention what type of reinforcer and reinforcement schedule you would use and explain why you made those particular choices. Include information from class materials, readings and research on operant conditioning to support your discussion.

4) Stages of Development: Understanding Yourself
Psychologists, such as Jean Piaget and Erik Erikson, theorize that humans go through stages in their development throughout life, growing from infancy to old age. Piaget outlined stages of thinking, referred to as cognitive development; Erikson described stages of personality, referred to as psychosocial development. How can you use this information to better understand your own life? What stages of cognitive and psychosocial development have you gone through since you were an infant? Which stages will you encounter during adulthood and old age?

In a multi-paragraph essay describe all the different stages of cognitive and psychosocial development throughout your life span. Be sure to provide examples to illustrate the thoughts, emotions and behavior typical of each stage. Include details from class materials, readings and research on human development to support your discussion.

5) Psychological Disorder
Choose any psychological disorder and write how it can be developed from the environment (experiences or biological) or genetics. If it is genetics, what may trigger the gene to synthesize? Then, choose a current media, where someone may be suffering from this disorder and give the main exhibited behaviors that may have led to the diagnoses.

Again, be sure to provide evidence from the person’s or character’s thoughts, emotions and behavior. Include details from class materials, readings and research on personality to support your discussion.

 

Essay Format

 

  1. Proper APA citation of article. This includes author/s (last name/s first), date of publication, article title, name of journal, and pages.
  2. Four paragraphs: Introduction— discussion on what the disorder is and state your hypothesis (e.g. bipolar disorder has a genetic factor); support your hypothesis –using the text and any other scholarly material (at least one reference must be other than the text); identify a fictional character, and provide support using the DSM-5 criteria for your support; provide a treatment plan.

 

 

 

What is being done to reverse the negative effects of these shocks? What lessons have we learnt?

A 2,500-word research analysis paper.

Summarize the main issues found within the international financial marketplace credit crisis of 2008. Identify the cause of the domino effect and how it rippled through the different international financial markets ultimately causing a decline in investor and consumer confidence, a reduction in available credit and industrial production and a concomitant increased in unemployment, and also the impact on international financial decisions from both the supply and the demand side.

Start with the housing market and CDOs, collateralized debt obligations, and trace the developments through the system to today. What is being done to reverse the negative effects of these shocks? What lessons have we learnt? How did this financial crisis became an economic crisis.

Animal Behavior :How do the pigeons demonstrate discrimination, and how do they demonstrate generalization, in this study?

Paper Review of:  Herrnstein, Loveland & Cable (1976).

You can find this paper on the Moodle site for this course.

You are welcome to simply insert your answers into this document, as long as your

name is on the final document.  Spelling and sentence structure are important!

Also note that you are sometimes asked to consider specific paragraphs.  That does not suggest that you should consider only those paragraphs as you look for helpful information.

Note:  As this paper progresses, there are a number of statistical procedures pertaining to the Mann-Whitney U test.  I suggest that you don’t worry about understanding this, unless you are curious.  Instead, I suggest that you concentrate on the authors’ interpretations of what the statistics have revealed.

  1. In your own words, what makes this study unique among other laboratory studies of animal discrimination and generalization?  (10 pts)
  2. Suppose someone said, “This study showed that all of the pigeons learned how to distinguish trees from non-trees without any errors.”  What is an accurate response to that     statement? (10 Pts.)
  3. Suppose it is your job to teach someone how to interpret Figure 1 (Not Table 1). What   would you say? (20 Pts.)
  4. How do the pigeons demonstrate discrimination, and how do they demonstrate generalization, in this study?  For context, limit your answer to the “W” experiments. (20       Pts.)  (10 pts.)
  5. I would suggest that subtraction is more difficult to learn than addition is, and division is more difficult to learn than multiplication is. (a) What result in this study relates to that             observation?  (b) Do you think that it is relevant?  Why, or why not? (10 pts)
  6. Consider this sentence on p. 298. “Pigeons respond to clusters of features more

            or less isomorphic with the clusters we respond to ourselves.”  (You may need to do a bit   of reading about isomorphism in psychology, specifically in Gestalt Psychology, or in other areas related to perception.)  Here is the 4-part question:  (a) What is the issue,      here?  (b) What are the competing hypotheses?  (c) What do the authors conclude, and (d)        what do you think?  (20 pts.)

  1. (a) Do you think that this study has demonstrated that pigeons can acquire concepts?       (b) Support your answer with evidence and reasoning.  (20 pts)

Does sensitivity to configure/featural differences in upright faces/houses predict self-reported face recognition ability?

Correlation Lab Report – data to be run on SPSS using one tailed pearson, scattergraphs for each correlation to be included

Facial recognition; Does sensitivity to configure/featural differences in upright faces/houses predict self-reported face recognition ability?

Main Hypothesis we are testing:

  1. Configural sensitivity towards upright faces predicts self reported face recognition ability
  2. Featural sensitivity towards upright faces predicts self reported face recognition ability
  3. Configural sensitivity towards upright houses predicts self reported face recognition ability
  4. Featural sensitivity towards upright houses predicts self reported face recognition ability

The hypothesis is directional – One tailed as would expect a negative correlation as a high PI20 score corresponds with low self-reported face recognition ability. If not significant then why?

Data that needs to be analysed:

  • PI20 (questionnaire measuring self reported face recognition ability) scores (high scores indicate lower self reported face recognition ability and vice versa)
  • Experimental task -160 trials (data on sensitivity d)

-80 trials for each condition (ie 80 for upright faces, 80 for upright houses) of which:

-20 which differed in configuration but not features

-20 which differed in features but not configuration

-40 pairs which were identical

  • If there are significant correlations then partial correlation to be run to help explore further whether effects are upright face-specific, ie does sensitivity to configural differences in upright faces explain any of the variation of self-reported face recognition ability that sensitivity to configural differences in non face objects does not
    • Correlating d for configural differences in upright faces controlling for d for configural differences in upright houses
    • Correlating d for featural differences in upright faces controlling for d for featural differences in upright houses

Reason behind doing the experiement:

  • Previous research by Yovel & Kanwisher 2004  showed x, y, x but nor clear if a,b,c
  • Failed to look at 1,2,3 hence it was decided to reperform the experiment
  • Ie what hasn’t been answered by the previous resesarch
  • Want to see how reliable the previous research was

Background:

  • Evidence that people can recognize 5000 faces on average (but wide individual differences) – Jenkins et al., 2018
  • Recognition survives well if we haven’t seen someone for a long time, or they’ve changed their appearance (hairstyle etc)
  • People are also generally good at deriving other information from faces such as emotion, but again evidence of individual difference – Hoffman et al., 2010
  • How good we are is surprising as we see a lot of faces and their first order configuration (nose in the middle, eyes above, mouth below) is the same.
  • Individual features (nose, mouth, eye etc)
  • Second order configuration (spacing)
  • Holistic processing (integration of the multiple parts of a face into a single holistic representation)
  • See Maurer et al., 2002 for further discussion.
  • Many psychologists believe faces (particularly upright faces) and non-face objects are processed differently:
  • Range of effects (composite effect, inversion effect etc) found in behavioural experiments with faces are not found (or not to the same extent) with non-face objects – Robbins & McKone, 2007
  • Neuro-imaging studies show differences in activation (notably fusiform face area) – Kanwisher & Yovel, 2006
  • It has been proposed:
  • object processing involves decomposition into parts or features (Biederman, 1987)
  • faces are represented and recognised holistically (Tanaka & Farah, 2003) and in particular relying on second-order configuration (Searcy & Bartlett, 1996)
  • However, it has also been argued featural processing of faces has been underplayed:
  • emphasis on configural processing often relies on assumption that inversion primarily impairs configural processing, but evidence that it also impairs feature processing (Murphy & Cook, 2017)
  • Your experiment asks:
  • Does sensitivity to configure differences in upright faces predict self-reported face recognition ability?
  • Does sensitivity to feature differences in upright faces predict self-reported face recognition ability?
  • Is this pattern the same for upright houses?
  • Why is it relevant?
  • Face processing is important for social interactions & deficits could contribute to isolation etc
  • As well as prognosticator (face blindness) as an extreme form, various groups may have some difficulties with faces – autism (Dawson et al., 2005) and older people (Ortega & Phillips, 2007)
  • Could training help? If so, configure or feature, and would it be limited to faces or include other things?
  • Could configure and feature processing differences be a diagnostic tool?
  • Stimuli were houses and faces which differed either in features or configuration – Yovel & Kanwisher 2004
  • Stimuli were either upright or invertedgiving four conditions. This replicates Y&K but we will only give you, and you should only analyze, upright conditions
  • identical
  • sensitivity (d’) is a measure of accuracy which is independent of response bias
  • It takes into account both cases where you correctly saw there was a difference (“hits”) and where you correctly saw there was no difference (“correct rejections”)
  • Superior measure than just “hits” because it doesn’t matter in theory if you are biased towards or against reporting a difference.

 

What are the implications of these principles and values as you care for patients?

Professional Development Template

Career Goals and Objectives

  • Short term goals – where would you like to be in 1 – 2 years?
  • Long term goals – where would you like to be in 5 – 10 years?
  • What is the purpose of these goals in relation to your professional development?

Core Values Guiding Your Professional Practice

  • What principles and values support your professional practice?
  • What are the implications of these principles and values as you care for patients?

Commitment to your patients, community and profession

  • Lifelong learning goals
  • Professional organization affiliations
  • Service to your community

What methods to slave owners use to restrict access to education or use their own warped systems of education to maintain control over slaves?

Paper Assignment

Using an argument that is either raised in Douglass’ My Bondage and My Freedom or that you have come up with after reading the book, you will be creating a thesis and using specific examples from both his autobiography and the other course materials to support your argument. A big part of the challenge in this assignment is coming up with a strong, thoughtful and engaging thesis. A classic example here of a poor thesis, is after having read My Bondage and My Freedom; the reader comes to the inescapable conclusion that “slavery is bad!” If one was writing in 1855, that might be a challenging argument to make and would have vocal opponents. However, in 2019 saying “slavery is bad” is like saying “Hitler was not a nice person.” It is an argument that is so banal and obvious that most people would not bother to read a paper that came to such a conclusion.

The more successful and engaging papers will focus on Douglass’ comments about certain aspects of the institution of slavery or on taking his social comments about life in the north and south and integrating them with other examples drawn from The American Yawp and primary source documents.  To provide you with a framework or staring point, I have included some passages and possible topics that I have drawn from My Bondage and My Freedom that might help you think about lines of inquiry. This list is by no means exhaustive and you should use this paper as a chance to explore topics or parts of Douglass’ argument that you find persuasive or interesting.

Paper requirements

When starting your assignment please note that the following are requirements for completing a successful paper.

  1. In your paper, you must make extensive use of arguments and evidence drawn from Douglass’ My Bondage and My Freedom. If you have two pages of autobiographical background on Douglass drawn from the web, two brief quotes selected from the book and a material drawn from class lectures and the main course text on slavery this is not going to meet the minimum requirements for the assignment. I will be looking for evidence that you have not only read My Bondage and My Freedom, but have also thought about and understood the arguments in the book.
  2. You need to construct your paper around a clear thesis. A well written seven page paper that simply describes Douglass’ life as a slave in the south is not really getting into the assignment. Similarly part of the challenge in coming up with a thesis is the question of is it manageable. One can write a good paper looking at Douglass’ views on how religion was used by southern slave owners and their supporters to justify the institution of slavery in five pages. Other much broader topics however, may take considerably more time to adequately discuss and should be pared down.
  3. For this paper I expect everyone to be able to use proper citations. If you are unsure of how to cite sources please see me before the due date and I would be happy to go over when and where you should use end and footnotes in your assignment.
  4. In terms of length this paper should be between four and five pages long.
  5. Paper should include a title that reflects the theme of your essay. “My paper on Douglass” is not such a great title. Please do not include a separate title page.
  6. All papers should have a clear thesis, sound argumentation and analysis, good organization, proper writing (diction, grammar, spelling etc.). Papers should be double spaced and not be printed in a font larger than 12-point.
  7. Two documents a “Common Mistakes and Style Guide” and “How to Cite Sources” are available on Desire2Learn in the folder Paper Assignment. You should at least look over both of them as you work on your paper.

Questions or topics

What is the importance of education in the slave system? How do slaves use education to try to empower themselves and why are masters and other southern whites so fearful of educated slaves. What methods to slave owners use to restrict access to education or use their own warped systems of education to maintain control over slaves?

How do questions of faith and religion impact Douglass’ narrative?

when we think about slavery we often focus on the master/slave relationship, but, as Douglass points out repeatedly in his autobiography, it is much more complicated than that. How are other Americans (Non-slaveholding southerners, northerners, freed blacks, women, laborers) impacted by the institution of slavery?

Looking Douglass’ description of slavery how does such a brutal and degrading system survive for so long in a country that prides itself on the high ideals of liberty and personal freedom? To explore topics such as this you will have to take Douglass’ experiences and integrate them with the events that lead up to the Civil War.

After reading My Bondage and My Freedom how does Douglass” compare life in the north and the south? In the main course text there are references to the cultural differences that developed between the two regions does Douglass see the same trends?

In one of his most famous and insightful quotes Douglass remarks “The slaveholder, as well as the slave, is the victim of the slave system. A man’s character greatly takes its hue and shape from the form of color and things about him. Under the whole heavens there is no relation more unfavorable to the development of honorable character, than that sustained by the slaveholder to the slave.” What does Douglass mean by this and how is this argument supported in his accounts of his life as a slave?

Notes on Writing

1) Choose a Topic: Start by picking a reading that you are interested in or feel strongly about. If you choose a topic that you do not understand or that bores you the writing process will be extremely tedious.

2) Think about your evidence. Much of the challenge involved in writing a good paper comes in this step. Can you place the material you selected in context? What background will you need to provide to your reader about the time period? How much detail is necessary?

3) Organization: Take the time to make a list of the class materials that are connected with the topic you are going to discuss and then put them into an outline. This process will help you determine what texts relate to the topic and possible arguments you might want to consider.

5) Write the Paper

6) Revisions: When you have finished your paper set it down, do not think about it for a while and then later read your paper out loud. When you are revising the paper always keep in mind: is my thesis clearly stated, do I do a good job supporting my argument, does my evidence fit the argument and does the paper flow? When you have finished the final revisions go back and check the grammar, spelling and citations one last time.

7) Avoid the use of the word I or we. You are composing a piece of formal academic writing about historical events that you were not directly involved in. There are many other ways to build an argument that do not involve the construction of awkward sentences that start with “I think” or “I feel.”

 

Describe a recent trend in the macroeconomic indicator or policy. Include a graph, chart, or table that illustrates the observed trend.

Use Microsoft Word to prepare a Final Report that is a minimum of two to three (2-3) pages long in which you:
1. Introduce your selected industry with a brief one-paragraph introduction. Refer to the NAICS (North American Industry Classification System) to review the details about your industry.
2. Assess your selected industry’s relative size and growth rate in the economy.
These macroeconomic resources will help you find the size and growth rate of your industry in the U.S. economy and/or relative to GDP:
• Real GDP – Select Section 1, then table 1.1.6 (select MODIFY to change the year range and frequency). Data is from Bureau of Economic Analysis (bea.gov).
• % Change in Real GDP – Select Section 1, then table 1.1.1 (select MODIFY to change the year range and frequency). Data is from Bureau of Economic Analysis (bea.gov).
• GDP by Industry – Steps:
1. Select “Interactive Data.”
2. Select “Industry Data Tables.”
3. Select “Begin Using the Data.”
4. Select “Gross Output by Industry.”
5. Select “Real Gross Output by Industry (A) (Q).”
6. Select “Quarterly” or “Annual.”
7. Select “Next Step.” Data is from Bureau of Economic Analysis (bea.gov).
• % Change in GDP by Industry – Steps:
1. Select “Interactive Data.”
2. Select “Industry Data Tables.”
3. Select “Begin Using the Data.”
4. Select “Gross Output by Industry.”
5. Select “Percent Changes in Chain-Type Quantity Indexes for Gross Output by Industry (A) (Q).”
6. Select “Quarterly” or “Annual.”
7. Select “Next Step.” Data is from Bureau of Economic Analysis (bea.gov).
3. Identify one newsworthy macroeconomic indicator or policy (e.g., GDP, unemployment, inflation rates, interest rates, government taxation and spending decisions, and/or FED decisions) that the industry should monitor and explain why it’s important and how it might impact your selected industry.
These resources are available to help you measure and track macroeconomic indicators and outcomes of macroeconomic policies.You’ll use one or more depending on the macroeconomic indicator selected.
• Unemployment rates – Data is from Bureau of Labor Statistics (bls.gov).
• Inflation rates as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Data is from Bureau of Labor Statistics (bls.gov).
• % Change in Real Exports and Imports – Select Section 4, then table 4.2.1. (Select MODIFY to change the year range and frequency.) Data is from Bureau of Economic Analysis (bea.gov).
• Government receipts, expenditures, and savings – Select Section 3, then table 3.1 for total government and table for 3.2 for federal government. (Select MODIFY to change the year range and frequency.) Data is from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (bea.gov).
• FED Funds Interest Rates. Data is from Trading Economics (tradingeconomics.com).
4. Describe a recent trend in the macroeconomic indicator or policy. Include a graph, chart, or table that illustrates the observed trend.
5. Summarize how you think this industry will perform in the future. Provide support for your rationale.